OceanStWx

The effective shear is such a nice tool that SPC added to their meso plots. And now you can see it modeled to some effect on SHARpy soundings on the model sites. An example being IAD from Friday. You have great mid level lapse rates (nice 150mb layer of 7.5C/km), and over 40 kt 0-6km shear. Normally we bang that. But see the purple bracket showing the effective inflow layer. It's elevated, meaning the near surface parcels are not buoyant enough to be part of the inflow (i.e. tornado environment is not great). Of course it's complicated as all get out to manually do, because you're looking for each parcel that meets GTE 100 J/kg CAPE and GTE -250 J/kg CIN as enough buoyancy for the inflow layer. Then you take shear up to 50% of the EL to get your effective shear.

Yeah, I mean compared to some of the worst flooding in the US, New England isn't really that bad.

Maine was blasted before your anny storm in 1987 too.

DVN had a nice low level meso spin up along the QLCS just west of the office. Looks like it gusted out and probably gave the office a nice peak wind.

Probably closer to the coast than GYX/Raymond. But I think it's on the table for sure just west of the coastal front.

HREF actually had the Scooter jack.

Imagine if it was snow.

Knowing SPC and how they operate I would be surprised if there is too much subjectivity built into it. MCDs, sure, but not the outlooks.

Irene was over 5' higher than this crest, and the record in March 1936 freshet was over 7' higher than Irene (29'). I mean a fairly long, slow melt off and only a couple minor flood episodes is pretty tame spring given the potential that was locked up in the snow up north.

I've never actually seen how they determine the daily percentages, I just know that they are related to climo in that way. But daily risks are still a measure of your relative risk on that day. If you see a 45% wind, it is still saying there is a 45% (or basically a coin flip) chance that someone within 25 miles of you loses a tree or two. But depending on the time of year that may also represent a huge increase in threat from climo.

Yeah water approaches the road and that gas station on the left at 15' and comes over the road completely at 15.5'. This crest was 16.4'.

Ours starts a week from Monday, but the course was also supposed to open yesterday and I don't think that happened. Would make it a late opening this year, but only by a few days.

Bethlehem got to 11.4' back in October 2017, 8' now. So 10-11' is not good for you.

Looks like it's just about cresting at Bethlehem now, so I'd say the worst is over.

I don't know where to find them anymore, but WeatherBell did have them.

Well that may be your problem.

Really the correct way to look at the probs is with respect to climo. So actually a 10% means much more in New England than it does in say OK. That week in June, any given day is roughly a 0.1% (not 1%) chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. So a 10% risk is 100 times more likely to occur on that day. So a 5% risk on 6/1 is actually still 50 more likely than any given day. Both are really large departures from a typical day. For western OK on the same days a 10% tornado risk is only about 8 times more likely.

Would I miss snow and severe? Sure. But I could probably live out the rest of my days in the trades and be just fine.

We have two office accounts at WeatherBell for the EPS mostly. Definitely finding the new website a bit clunky. I wouldn't mind following Maue to WeatherModels, but I really find him (and Bastardi at WeatherBell) tiresome and would rather send our office budget somewhere else.

Give me a ridge roller, otherwise I don't need it.

I mean his personal life may have been a mess, but that doesn't mean we can't be awed by his talent. It was very cool watching him win this tourney again. I mean Jack was 46 when he won, Tiger is 43 and needed to fuse part of his spine together to compete again. It's AT LEAST as impressive as Jack if not more.

Man they added heat maps by hazard type too, and in the significant tornado plot there was one event outlined over parts of New England. Tried to think off the top of my head what date it could be and failed. Searched IEM and found it within seconds though. 6/6/10 had a 10% hatched tornado. The point I selected in western MA to search for that only had 4 other dates (going back to 2002) that had 10% risk of tornadoes too. And none of those were 6/1/11.

https://t.co/zyLYOKQrhk

Casual gusts to 140 mph on top of the rockpile this morning.