OceanStWx

Luckily they have a TDWR.

Where's @CT Rain with the sidelobe alert?

Model grid spacing probably has a lot to do with it. Averaging out the higher elevations, and when you have boundary layer mixing like the GFS every 100 ft matters.

Trough of warm air alofting

Accurate.

One thing models typically don't handle well is the thermal profile in the southern half of NH when the forecast is isothermal. It always seems to be too warm from the Monadnocks into the SW Whites. The Presidentials, no problem, they are high enough.

To be fair, the month has pretty much sucked wire to wire. So it's not like she picked the bad week.

Agreed. It's really surface temps that are steering the ship here, which always makes me a little wary. If you're off by 1 degree that means someone is either getting a bunch more snow or none at all.

We increase snow totals. Now the chickens and even Ekster have some accumulating snow.

Euro pops a big area of negative 925 temps by 06-09z. NAM supports that with a similar area of 950s below zero. The GFS, as usual, has that mixed layer near the surface that is keeping 950s warm.

I mean 1100 ft is a really good spot. If I just pick our national blend temps at 09z Tue, the AVERAGE temp for all grid points 1000 ft and higher is 36.

I know the NCAR ensemble made its comeback for severe weather ops, but it is on board for lower elevation accumulations too.

If I could sum up my evening shift in a phrase: bring 'em up.

Have we switched official obs to the Tarmac at BDL yet? I know is the tail end of the HRRR run from 12z but that gray shading is a T of snow.

I mean it's a little wild that the NAM is a winter storm watch scenario. Even the GFS is a blue bomb above 1000 ft. So it's not that far a move off accumulation in valley locations.

I'll be the swing shift both days.

On thing about a few of those models in the HREF is that they use hydrometeor percentage to output snow, rather than a straight Kuchera or 10:1 below a certain threshold. And WPC is producing grids, so it should be WPC snow ratios. The 3km NAM is definitely putting ORH in the game on the last run.

Time to change the thread title?

Put the kid in his snow suit for a walk today...

So by their metric we're 3 times as likely to see Kevin's oaks dropped on his house on July 4th than on May 1st.

From SPC: These probability values were estimated from a 30-year period of severe weather reports from 1982-2011. The procedure to create the maps is as follows: 1. Reports for each day are put onto a grid 80 km x 80 km. 2. If one or more reports occur in a grid box, that box is assigned the value "1" for the day. If no reports occur, it's a zero. 3. The raw frequency for each day at each grid location is found for the period (number of "1" values divided by number of years) to get a raw annual cycle. 4. The raw annual cycle at each point is smoothed in time, using a Gaussian filter with a standard deviation of 15 days. 5. The smoothed time series are then smoothed in space with a 2-D Gaussian filter (SD = 120 km in each direction).

Well the local GYX course had its first scramble last night. It is damp. It's not just soggy, but water is still actively draining through the fairways in places.

I mean the 8/4/15 sunrise surprise shows a much more scary set up on the 12z CHH sounding. Effective inflow was to the surface despite over -150 J/kg CIN (remember criteria is GTE -250). Effective shear 56kt. Theta-e difference of 26 in the lowest 400 mb. Screams wind potential.

Oh there can be a correlation between UH swaths and tornado activity, but that's because supercells overwhelming produce the majority of tornadoes. Some models, like the HRRR, can discriminate between 2-5km UH (mid level) and 0-2 (low level). Having higher amounts of 0-2km UH will correlate even higher with tornado reports in most cases. But the most important thing is knowing the environment. You are asking yourself can supercells form, and what type of inflow access do those supercells have.