OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I mean most likely it was a cyclic supercell that produced several long track tornadoes. It's consistent with that type of evolution.
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I love that SPC is geeking out over HCRs in the discussion graphic. As anxious as they are, this is what they live to do.
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SPC is drilling down on their threat area within the larger threat area. That first MCD definitely highlights one of their zones.
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Basically no difference between the T/Td at MHT and FDR right now. Oh well...
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Think of it as analogous to an SPC forecaster, someone at SPC uses all available guidance (including flash flood guidance and QPF) to draw those outlooks. There will likely be a narrow zone that sees training storms along the warm front with a non-zero tornado threat. But it's too early to be that specific, hence the broad overlap in OK.
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Honestly it would be entirely unsurprising if there was an accident involving chasers today. It may also be the first time a high risk convective outlook and excessive rain outlook have overlapped.
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It is possible that flash flooding is the greatest threat, because it could include OKX, TUL, ICT.
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I mean obviously today is going to be serious across the southern Plains too. Great day to be glued to the radar.
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It had really good potential actually, even just 24 hours ago, but the trend has not been kind.
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I'm becoming less and less excited about today. The timing just doesn't look as favorable as it did yesterday. Shortwave shoots through faster, so we don't have as much time to recover.
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Given their height a 4C difference was possible if it was well mixed.
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PWM has 6 May measurable snow events I believe, and 3 were 1967.
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1500 feet or so seems to be the magic number in NH currently.
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Was just going to say that. It's pretty much straight snow now.
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Lots of mid 30s popping in SW NH now.
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Watching the Auto Road temps trend down, down, down.
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That's what it looks like. And you can see how close to isothermal we are by how thick that band of low CC is. A couple thousand feet of melting layer.
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Models really showing the best cooling starting around midnight.
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The shortwave axis hasn't crossed under yet, once it does we should see the ball start rolling.
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KBOX CC would suggest we just lopped off like 2000 ft of warm layer, but the melting layer is still sitting around 4000 ft.
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Yeah we had a pretty good dry layer between 700-800 mb on the morning sounding.
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Hmm, no mix in the grids until 05z.
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Still think I'm going to need to increase totals in SW NH.
