OceanStWx

Happy FV3 day everyone!

I don't know, I hate advection fog. It's so fickle. Patterns that look great will sometimes bust, and patterns that look meh will sock in. Radiation fog is mostly pattern recognition and persistence (once you know the terrain well enough).

Advection fog can feature pretty strong winds. Sometimes a breeze actually helps the fog form. Convergence near the coast actually creates a subtle amount of lift to cool the air to saturation. Typically we don't have very strong winds with this type of advection fog though. Seeing moisture actually increase with height is definitely a check mark for favorable.

It's possible for some dense fog as the warm front stays hung up along the coast. You don't need to advect very high dewpoints into our area before fog forms this time of year (water temps still in the low 50s).

It only took a year and a half but we (I) finally got around to planting at the new house. Two 10x3' beds on either side of the front door, and another 12x3' bed on the side of the house that is really visible from the street. The good news is I have 96 ft sq. ft. less to mow, the bad news I had 96 sq. ft of lawn to dig up. Now I just need to figure out what I can plant along the edge with the "wetlands" that is prettier to look at than weeds.

I can tolerate mosquito bites, and even after the initial pain of a horse/deer fly, but black fly bites I think I have a special reaction to. They itch like crazy. To the point I'd consider severing the limb than go on.

I loved my time out there, and it's tough to hear how bad it is right now. And that sets up potential feedback into what are the wettest months of the year. Way more moisture out there that typical evapotranspiration offers.

Oh man this is really starting to remind me of all those chasers that get mad because they are out there for science but get stuck in traffic instead and blame other people.

This is roughly what the 00z ILN balloon hodograph looked like superimposed on the VAD hodograph. You can really see how much the 0-3 km wind vectors increased in magnitude. Very little direction change, but magnitudes just about doubled. When you see the phrase enlarged hodographs, this is what it means. The ~ 20kft TDS and Vr just below 100 knots puts this right in the space between EF3/4. The few damage indicators I've seen (like the high tension tower) are solid EF3 degrees of damage. The eastern end of the outlook definitely overperformed. I would say IN was about as expected, but the OH forecast was a positive bust. And this isn't a shot at SPC either, there was very little to indicate an increased risk until it was happening. CAMs were not on it, and when they were they were too far north, even as late as 20z.

Dayton suburbs got rocked

I'm still baffled by my return to golf after keeping my kid alive for his first year. Short game is on point, putter feels great, chipping in from greenside. Approach and tee shots are garbage. A real liability. Signs of life this past week though. Had 3 shots in the round from 115, usually my gap wedge distance. Carried all three at least 130, and not because of a skulled shot either. All solid strikes.

My biggest concern for PA is storm coverage. That's a little more uncertain on CAMs. But quite a few valleys there are SW to NE oriented so that channeled flow is actually pretty favorable in this environment. There is good hail CAPE still available in parts of SNE, but I would like to see it a little lower in the sounding and not as close to the storm top as it is.

The nice part about the wind field today is that a right mover is going to do just fine with SW winds at the surface. That's why NW flow is great, it's still a 90 degree angle to veered surface winds.

I mean there is barely a marginal risk into SNE, so I wouldn't be getting my hopes up for anything more than isolated severe. Models support that at least as a low chance risk.

I did not mean that. New England is going to be inverted in all likelihood.

NAM forecasts for PA/NY are in the 65 degree range, which leads to LCLs around 1000 m. So I would say about in the middle, not bad but not great either.

Shear is pretty impressive on recent NAM runs. > 60 kt 0-6 km and approaching that for 0-3 km shear. That points towards potentially higher end severe no matter the mode (discrete or squall line), especially when factoring in lapse rates aloft. I'll be curious to see what the 00z ARW/NMM runs look like.

Meh on the EML there, but the elevated CAPE was all nicely situated in the hail growth zone and shear was more than sufficient for supercells.

I mean that's actually not a bad look for nocturnal elevated severe convection even east of the slight risk. CON is like 1500 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear approaching 40 knots. I'd hit that.

I'm not positive of all the parameterization schemes for the CAMs, but they are designed to overturn the atmosphere. So sometimes they do it in an environment that isn't going to turn over.

Well there is a bias for some CAMs to over-mix the boundary layer, which would artificially enhance low level lapse rates. RAP/HRRR models would definitely be in this camp.

I think too much cloud cover (maybe as a result of all the WAA) limited 0-3 km lapse rates. If WAA was elevated to start there was no mechanism to draw in surface air. If you aren't surface based you aren't getting tornadoes.

Really interesting "null" case on a high risk actually. Ryan pointed out on Twitter last night that there was a little WAA/subsidence over OK that capped things a bit, but also you had really weak 0-3 km lapse rates (5.3 C/km). The analog event (April 2011) BMX had 8.8 C/km.

Nice storm about to blast PVD, grew up a little from Ginxy's.

They are a little close to the warm front I think.