OceanStWx

I'd say Kevin's out with the chainsaw, but it's well past his bedtime.

Gimme a 45-55 kt gust at PWM and I'll be ecstatic.

If eastern MA is still meh at 06z then maybe we can talk bust on the LLJ, but until then we hold our ground.

BOX is doing part of the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) and once the radar is down they can't bring it back up, it's quite literally in pieces. So you are stuck with neighboring radars of the TDWR south of Boston if you have access via RadarScope or something like that.

The downslope signal has been strong for a few days now.

Rookie move. IOSN3 FTW.

69 knots. Nice.

How do you do on downslope winds? I think some parts of western NH will rip with those.

I think there’s a threat that the triple point features enough of a window for surface based convection to include a marginal. It won’t be several supercells forming across the outlook area, but one storm that will be a threat kind of thing.

I'll have to check it out later. I'm crashing after mids. Pants off, dance off at work tonight.

The HRRR definitely has traceable features that have associated wind maxes within the larger LLJ. So there will likely be some convective elements that get ingested into the system that will have locally higher wind potential.

No we don't. We are already paying for WeatherBell, we aren't going to get approval for WeatherModels too.

Your window is like 10 pm to 4 am or so I think. HREF is painting quite a bullish picture for QPF for the upslope in NH and VT. Even taking 60-80% of QPF is like 3-4".

Looks a little sting-y

In an ideal world the independent analysis will show that the first guess is within 10 knots 100% of the time (as the study I modeled this off of found). Hopefully it's even better than that.

The good news is it all makes sense. The higher your wind and lapse rates the higher the potential wind gust, and the higher the 925 depth the lower your potential wind gust (inverse relationship there).

Spits out 50 knots around 12z. I'm pretty happy my equation will actually produce HWW criteria. My first attempts really fell short on the high end events.

Euro also doesn't have 09z output to show what happens between there and Penobscot Bay. I think the LLJ maxes out somewhere around Cape Ann to PWM.

Well after grinding all night to finish (between actually doing the forecast) I've come up with a multiple regression equation that explains roughly 60% of the variance in wind gusts at PWM. 32 + (50% 925 wind) + (90% lapse rates sfc to 925) - (5% of sfc to 925 depth) Based on the 06z NAM bufkit for PWM, that gives me a first guess gust of 47.6 knots at PWM. I kind of like it. Still have to test this against some independent data, but results are promising.

Some, like Cape and Islands, but outside that is probably reach at this point.

We get plenty of stout LLJs in October, and they don't all produce widespread wind gusts. If SSTs drove our wind potential, we'd never get wind events in January and February. While it may have some influence, it's not very high up the list.

Just wait 6 hours

It's not out of the question. Even in NH I have a few bufkit locations showing flashes of isothermal above 1500 ft.

One interesting aspect of the ensembles is that just about every single member is a bomb (GEFS and EPS). So it's not like there are a bunch of clunkers dragging the mean down, it's location dragging the mean down. I think it highlights the ingredients are all there for a big system. While some of these runs are clearly dealing with latent heat release issues, the negatively tilting trof and favorable location within the upper jet structure are good positives to have on your side.

I'm working on some VERY preliminary research up here on stable/neutral wind events and unsurprisingly the best correlation is 925 mb wind speed followed by 925 mb to surface lapse rates. I'm still working out the regression equation but it's roughly 50% of the 925 mb and 80% of the lapse rates (positive is more unstable). But since lapse rates rarely are in excess of 10 C/km, that only "adds" at most 10 knots to the forecast gusts. So 925 wind speed does a lot of the work in my regression. Would suggest 30-35 knots is a fine place to start. That's using the GYX sounding and PWM gust (we don't track gusts here on the hourly). Overall I think my first pass is failing to capture the higher end events. So now I'm working on using the GYX upper air and PWM T/gust to see if that significantly changes things (lapse rates are often more unstable at PWM).