OceanStWx

Time on that?

Don't see any reason why not. Reservoir of 3000 J/kg sitting over SNE.

Sounds more like something I learned about in birthing class than meteorology though.

The left mover by Pawtucket shot up to 65 dBZ to nearly 25 kft. Big core above the freezing level, good potential for a downburst there.

Just noticed a nice stationary blob of dBZ, looks like they threw up a wind turbine off RT 14 in Johnston and it's very visible for KBOX.

Storm in RI now has over 50 dBZ over 38 kft. That's pretty impressive for these parts. MRMS suggesting hail over 1 inch.

Great remark: Thunderstorm followed by a tornado

Shear is still pretty marginal down that way, so a straight up/straight down pulse is the most likely evolution for the time being.

I'd say mostly a risk for an isolated downburst as the core collapses. Didn't get so high that I think large hail is really a threat.

Got that out just before BOX issued the warning...

Actually a decent core just crossing 495 to your east. Headed for Woburn.

I wouldn't say it's designed specifically to model local convection, it's a downscaled version of the 12km NAM that CAN resolve convection. I would trust the models that were specifically designed to model convection first.

1008 mb low vs 996 mb low. I'm sure the wind fields are totally the same too.

I lived in Davenport (worked at DVN) from 2008-2011. So that was all part of my CWA.

Glad I was living in Iowa for that one.

2009...

New England just needs that W component to save the marine influence (unless you have dews like Kevin's mulch bed advecting off the Atlantic).

I've always been a fan of NW flow events.

One thing to be aware of with veered surface flow is to check the flow aloft. Because if the flow is more strongly NW aloft, you still get a nice change in direction from surface to 500 mb. Normally we think in terms of south surface, west aloft. But SW surface, NW aloft is still 90 degrees.

Average temp now 82. All out torch at 88...

Should be a fun week of listening to why 85/65 is really HHH weather.

I definitely wouldn't feel super comfortable about that sharp eastern edge to the slight in IL.

I think I joined up in the winter of 2006-2007 while I was in grad school at UML. Largest seasonal snowfall: 98.0 (2012-2013 Portland) Lowest seasonal snowfall: 32.4 (2006-2007 Lowell) Highest storm total: 31.9" (Feb 9-10, 2013 Portland) Deepest snow depth: 25" (Feb 2015 Portland) Longest period with snow OTG: 93 days (Jan 4th, 2015 - Apr 4th, 2015 Portland) Longest period of time below freezing: 15 days (Dec 25th, 2017 - Jan 8th, 2018 Portland) Snowfall seasonal average 2006-2007: 66.9" If you had asked me prior to running the numbers I would've been sure that my lowest snowfall season would have been at DVN, but I actually had two winters there over 50" (which is solidly above normal for them).

NAM GW This looks like something straight out of Bangladesh.

Beds are all mulched. Peonies have flowered and hydrangeas are starting to get a purple tinge to them, so it appears I haven't killed anything yet.