OceanStWx

ALY 17, GYX/CHH 18, OKX 17.5

Yeah I'm thinking a max 90-91, but it might be difficult to creep into the 93+ range.

A few places could tickle, but it is harder to heat a swampy air mass like this than a dry one. So the 10 at 10 rule of thumb likely will not apply here.

Very respectable rating there. Did you get the chickens tied down for the big wind this afternoon?

Severe cancel...

Its sister tree and the lower branches all have red-tinged new growth leaves, so all hope is not lost for me.

I grabbed a variant specifically for fall color, I think they are autumn blaze.

I'll have to look into that, because I really don't want to lose it after my very deliberate attempt to find a blazing red fall color to plant.

I'm with Wiz, I'm not sure this is a widely scattered thunderstorm day. Should be a fairly continuous line that forms as the front sags in. As for severe, we're going to be chasing isolated microbursts. Weak shear and high PWAT really limit the hail potential. But storms will be tracking roughly parallel to the front, so some training and heavy rain could be in store. Just what everyone wanted.

I'm also struggling with one of my red maples at home. I'm not sure what happened to it. We planted two a little over a year and a half ago, trunks about 2 inches at their thickest. One is thriving, but the other lost the top of its crown. Full foliage around the middle and bottom though. I've weeded and watered, but still not seeing any signs of life on top.

Speaking of diseased trees, I was always bummed once I found out what the Ostrander Elms gravestone was all about in the middle of Cornell's campus. This is the view I was familiar with, but Dutch elm claimed Ostrander's about 100 years from their 1877 planting. These two pictures are roughly taken from that same intersection, looking in the same direction.

Bissell really is my go to. So many great options, and now that you don't have to camp out for a four pack it's all the better.

And join me on this wild ride where, in one of his rantings, in something called the Patriot Post he says, "as a meteorologist in the private sector, wherein success is largely determined by forecast skill, I cannot afford to be wrong."

Holy crap, I forgot about his no 90s in DC call from earlier this month. It's actually pretty shocking that people shell out a lot of money to get insight like that.

Meh, I'm not even sure he put that much thought into it. Every hurricane is 1938 or Carol, every blizzard is 1978, and so on and so on. Kevin is right about one thing, hype sells. And JB is a salesman. But honestly it's not that hard to take SPC's outlook and slap your own contours on it and be right more often than not. I could've just circled the max updraft helicity from the 12z HREF yesterday and come up with a similar red blob to JB. He says "no tornadoes" like it was just bad luck one didn't happen. There were no tornadoes because it never really looked like a tornado set up. Certainly not a significant tornado set up.

He was so close...

Any estimate on the winds or any damage?

37 knots at PSM, and that wasn't even the worst of it.

Right, the rain was being pushed ESE but the hail stays close to the updraft itself. So the updraft was moving ENE into air that wasn't being rained into.

It was a splitting supercell. Hodographs were fairly straight to begin with (storms tend to split with a right mover and a left mover). Typically our winds in the northern hemisphere favor right movers, but the hodographs actually had a slight cyclonic curvature. This actually favors the left moving supercell a little. So the storm that broke NE was the left mover. Based on overall shear/storm relative winds precip would be carried ESE out of the updraft. So the left mover would actually be moving into clear air, whereas the right mover was moving into the area just hit by its own forward flank.

Definitely would not be surprised to see something in the 25-30 knot range. That's pretty much been the standard across the line in the last hour or so.

Are you the lady that calls us from Limerick every time there is a heavy thunderstorm?

Peak 24 knots at GYX, 28 at LEW

Don't need larger.