OceanStWx

That's the general finding. More rain when it rains, but more dry days between events, so overall similar precip. The Northeast has one of the stronger correlations to heavy rainfall events increasing in frequency.

You're welcome.

Right now the 90/10 "goalposts" are 93-99. Scorch-ah.

The op is an outlier in the ensemble spread however. For instance CON, going with 99 and the high member is 100, mean 96, and low 89. So the op is like a 90th percentile forecast.

I wish I had been paying more attention to the PDS of QPF. I'm wondering if there was a signal for a higher likelihood for localized high QPF vs. widespread thanks to the drier air. I know it's Kevin's favorite but we have a long way to go with probabilistic forecasts. We still have a long way to go with the Saffir Simpson scale. Scott is right, that's a garbage excuse not to evacuate, and maybe more evidence that we should move to an impact scale that includes Saffir Simpson. They may have been right to not order an evacuation, but for the wrong reasons.

They also had a plethora of returning vets to employee at airfields. Right now Farmington is a midnight ob, but I'm not sure how long it has been that way.

The short answer is this was a "do no harm" update to the dynamical core. From there it theoretically be easier to improve on forecasts. The longer answer is that the GFS definitely had an over-mixing the boundary layer problem. Obviously showing up most notably during winter storms ( typically inverted) and HHH days (typically high moisture content leading to lower lapse rates). To my knowledge this hasn't been eliminated in the FV3 version. Look for more significant improvements on the model itself in 2020-2021.

Three straight days of 100+ at BOS, sure.

We'll start high and adjust up as needed.

Don't you worry. We have our snow observer taking precip measurements and the have the river gauges to back up temps, we just have to go through the motions of fixing and trying to recover the data before we back fill.

Pretty cool visualization there.

BOS chucking an average low of 70.3 this month certainly helps.

Most likely Post Office.

This is all I can find. Locations: 1945-09-01 to 1948-06-01 0.5 MI SE OF PO 1944-01-01 to 1945-09-01 0.2 MI NE OF PO 1942-02-01 to 1944-01-01 0.7 MI SW OF PO 1898-02-01 to 1942-02-01 0.2 MI N OF PO Relocations 1945-09-01 .6 mi SE 1944-01-01 .8 mi NE 1942-02-01 .9 mi SSW

Shit. Show.

You can look up station meta data that will list any equipment moves (that's how I found out where BOS snowfall was being measured) and I don't see any for OWD. So my guess would be local airfield changes. Related, no wonder they radiate so well...

We opted for the BloomStruck cultivar since it only grows to around 4-5 feet. We didn't want to block our front windows. On a side note, it really is helpful when you do the planting and know what you actually have in the ground for maintenance purposes. I couldn't imagine trying to figure out what previous owners had.

Need some stuff like DC this morning. DCA got 3.30" in one hour.

I'm actually pretty happy otherwise with how the gardening is coming along. All the new plantings are showing signs of new growth. The spirea particularly look healthy, and the lily of the valley and hydrangea in the last couple of weeks have shown new growth as well.

Dark and stormy

CAMs are pretty much in agreement on timing today.

Earlier the better.

So the "watch likely" one comes next to the east right?

It's the exact expectation you would have for EML dews (not mixing out but rising) except we're just swamped through the column.

Nice to see dews going up rather than mixing out during the day. Despite the garbage lapse rates we should have no shortage of CAPE this afternoon.