OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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We all know WAA has a finite amount of snow it produces, with the real potential being the CCB/deformation banding. The banding signal is definitely there the latter half of Monday into Monday night, but the in between could get ugly outside of any areas of stronger lift.
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I could see it working out that way too. Once that first surge of WAA kind of washes out it may really taper off for a large area before the mid levels take over.
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Probably too early to start worrying about that, because that would mostly depend on the temp profile at go time.
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Yeah the east wind at 250 mb is a great signal for slow moving.
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Kim Jong Scoots
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Congrats Dendrite!
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Certainly, but there is going to be convection with this one. It's rarely handled well by NWP, especially a couple days out. It's definitely not my specialty, but I would hazard a guess that's why we always seem to be seeing subtle (sometimes not so subtle) shifting run to run. These higher resolution NWP systems are very sensitive to convection.
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Typically I would like to see the flow be more meridional to do something like that. I like my convection oriented N/S to really drive the heights up.
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The Southeast convection is going to play a pretty large role in this, because the ridging ahead of the upper low factors into both the north/south and the east/west position of low pressure. The higher heights ahead of the upper low would suggest a threat for a more west low track.
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Really strong banding signal Monday night, but the question I think both on the GFS and Euro is whether it's too far east to really spread the wealth. The AEMATT crowd should love it though.
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Yeah, I think my other post must've gotten buried in the flurry there, but 12/26/02 was a biggie too. Jan looked pretty wild across campus.
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While we're at it 12/26/02 another RI whiff while home on holiday break. I definitely remember the back to back events that I missed while home in RI. I'm sure @ORH_wxman has the same memory of missing the ITH goods (though ORH was admittedly much better off than East Bay RI).
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Those 2003 storms really sucked as a new college met student. 12/7/03 I was in Ithaca before break, Rhody was slammed. 1/4/03 I was home on holiday break and ITH got slammed.
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That CIPS page has really expanded the fields you can look at regarding old events. The banding signature was pretty great. 850 mb through 450 mb essentially stacked f-gen. Leading to a really solid single band like your radar images show.
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Yeah, individual storm pages don't have 72 hour totals, but the overall analog page does. So for all the IMBY that get upset when their ruler ob doesn't match the map... and 1/4/03
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I feel like this is a pretty common bust on modeling. Just happened on a much smaller scale with our last warning event.
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It's not really. It's 24 hour snowfall ending 12z on the 7th. So it doesn't have any snow for the 5th into the morning of the 6th. I had to pick a time window and this one had the most snow to highlight what type of event it was.
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Just a time range thing I think. CIPS only has 24 hour snowfall on there, which cuts off southern areas. But if you go back 12 hours you cut off northern areas.
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Definitely progged to be more robust at 500/300 Sunday than 1/4/03 was, but the mid levels back in 2003 were a fair analog match for Sunday.
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1/4/03
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12/7/03
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FV3? It's really just analogs based on the upper air pattern of the GFS at that forecast hour, so in general much better than an MSLP or QPF prog from the GFS.
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Mostly it shows you the "potential" of a certain upper air pattern. It's not like this system has potential only up to advisory snowfall, it has the potential to really turn into something meaty. Of course the 10th percentile (think of it as "at least this much snow") is 0, so there are wide goalposts. Median is respectable for early Dec though:
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It's the 90th percentile of all analog matches. So 90% of all analogs had this much snow or less. It's kind of a measure of the upper limit of the system according to analogs.
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Thanks. My wife is not a huge fan of this particular shift in general, let alone on a holiday. Me, I'm thankful for the 90th percentile CIPS analog guidance:
