OceanStWx

The biggest giveaways for inflow air is very low CC (<0.80) and low Z.

I think the consensus we've landed on is one TDS for sure, and the second is either inflow or potentially fanning out lofted debris. But without seeing the damage on the ground my gut is there were two tornadoes here.

LCL < 1000 m = good, 50 knots at 850 = good, effective shear ~ 60 knots = good, but what really pops out to me was 0-3 km shear approaching 60 knots. That gives you a lot of latitude for bowing segments and surges of wind to spin up brief tornadoes. It's quite possible that we had two quick ones on the Cape. I'm guessing the local thermodynamic environment was slightly better than what the 12z CHH sounding showed.

Yeah try doing this in the field when all you have is a bunch of trees broken like match sticks! That's why the surveys take so long. The wind speed is usually the easy part, determining if it was a tornado and the track is much harder.

Surveys are tough, especially when basing it off tree damage alone. Weak trees (think stronger tornado) relative to an inflow dominant tornado tend to fall before the tornado arrives, so they will actually fall opposite the tornado direction of motion. As the tornado weakens this type of tornado shows a broadening confluent damage path but all roughly in the same direction. As there become more rotation relative to inflow (less convergent) with tornadoes the damage pattern gets even more convoluted. The stronger a tornado gets the more the tree pattern will look unidirectional (but the key is it falls across track). And the stronger and more convergent a tornado gets, the more the confluent zone of damage shifts to the left of track.

Based on the EF-scale that's probably 95-100 mph-like expected damage. So solidly in the EF1 category.

Same areas tomorrow morning look good for some thunder.

Amateur radio reports starting to trickle in from the Cape. Definitely wind damage there.

The best argument I can make for it is it's in a region of plenty of 0-3 km shear (favorable for QLCS mesovortices) and it's near the warm front. Otherwise, I feel pretty meh about that one for an actual tornado. Now QLCS mesovortices don't always produce tornadoes, but they can enhance downdrafts (a la Bob's image). I would probably have stuck to the SVR with "tornado possible" tag.

I see that.

Can't wait to see what EWB puts up, because dual-pol DPR is estimating 7.8"/hr.

Speak for yourself. Barely ending in a fizzle for places like CON.

But dewpoints in the 40s by Moosehead Lake, so there is some sneaky dry air just north of the rain.

We have about 1.5" in the forecast for PWM, and through the first two 6 hours periods of this 36 hour storm total forecast they had 0.14". It better start raining hard soon.

This next round could be a little gustier. Better down by MTP, but shouldn't be bad for you.

Time to start trimming the forecast.

You're still south of the warm front (for now).

It'll probably be close, but I'm going to say no.

You're just starting to see now where the outflow is running out ahead of the updrafts (faint bulge east of the echoes SE of Long Beach). But there are some pixels over 70 knots ~ 3,000 feet off the ground. 70+ dews can overcome a lot of environmental hostility sometimes.

This MCS is showing no signs of slowing down despite being out over water now. The apex headed right for the warm frontal boundary on LI. Solid cold pool behind it and plenty of high dews to sustain it ahead.

In 40 minutes it went from like a half dozen strikes every 5 minutes to nearly 100.

It's riding the warm front. Definitely entering a more stable area, but plenty of juice to the south to sustain a nice elevated storm anyway.

Nice spinner on the front in the Sound.

What a URL.

Brace yourself for extreme disappointment. Stabilized boundary layer is only going to make for some pretty clouds.