OceanStWx

How much for Maple Hollow?

Correct.

Official forecast?

Not uncommon for winter events to all be under 10,000 ft clouds. And you're like 7,000 ft on our beam.

Demand. If you can offer higher resolution, in my backyard type forecasts that's what people are going to want. And we don't have the computing power to run two versions. And running a coarse model and downscaling it to 13 km isn't really helping improve things either. There is an argument that we have too much data at our fingertips, or maybe that we have too much data that we don't understand fully at our fingertips. A 20 km GFS run is not the same as a 90 km GFS run, and forecasters need to change their thinking about how to use it to improve the forecast. Rip and reading may have worked for a broad brushed forecast at 90 km, but rip and reading at 20 km can make you look pretty bad at times.

I mean when you make a image out of 13 km f-gen it looks like a 2000 mile long series of mountain waves. I can glean no information out of that. But a 90 km GFS field showed clear regions of f-gen that could be used to diagnose the best area for potential banding. That's why I'm kind of okay with the Euro data we get in AWIPS being 80 km still, despite the model being 13 km res.

Ooo, that's going to be close. Downtown Harwich is like 70.06W but extends east to about 70.00W, and the ACK ferry landing is like 70.09W but Sankaty Head is like 69.97W.

There are a couple reasons why this isn't the case. One is that you have to find a way to manage convection. You either explicitly resolve it (convection-allowing) or parameterize it. Either way you are making assumptions that you are either parameterizing it correctly or correctly modeling its location and strength. Two is that as you improve your resolution you also sharpen gradients and increase the max/min values of features. This can dramatically affect the forecasts farther and farther out in time. You can imagine that an 80 km Euro on day 4 having broad QPF amounts would show a potential event for everyone, but a 13 km Euro 4 days out may show a sharp northern edge and convince NNE that they are going to get nothing. What if the model trends north then? It will look like a bust, whereas years ago it wouldn't have seemed that far off.

Meh, it's one model cycle of many left to go. Ensembles still look like there's plenty of potential. I think it's increasingly clear that forecasters need to stop relying so much on deterministic run to run variability. With resolution down to 13 km in most instance you are just going to get far too much variability given the detail they show. 10-15 years ago deterministic runs were 80 km and features were much more broad and could be applied in the same way ensemble features are now.

Is he also our farthest east poster? Narrowly beats James and ACKwaves

My Ariens looked like it was shooting slurpee out the chute last night as I was trying to chew through that bank at the end of the driveway. It was about 3 ft high.

24.6" for the month (not including what has fallen since I left for work) and 24.9" season to date.

Yeah we're piecing the database back together, but it's kind of out of our hands as to how fast that gets done. We have all the coops B-91s but NCEI ultimately is the entity that has to change the information in the database. It'll get there eventually, but this process didn't even start until sometime after we picked up SW NH again.

Honestly churns my stomach a little bit (your son getting hurt, not the erasure of snowpack!). I know my little boy is going to get hurt, but it doesn't stop my from wincing every time he takes a tumble. Glad he's rebounded today though.

Naked mud angels in LEW tonight.

Looks like moose urine. And honestly I don't think we can rule that out.

I love this description: MALCONTENT West Coast-style Double IPA for those with bitterness in their hearts.

The cancellation begins Christmas, it will be complete by New Year's Day.

I opted for no clear beers. Hazy for me. Grabbed Flume^2 from Battery Steele, Weary World Rejoices from Bissell, and Tessellation from Lone Pine. The stockings will be hung by the chimney with care, while lies passed out in his chair...

I didn't measure and I really don't have to, the last couple of days vaporized my meager pack and I can see the lawn again out front and thin cover out back.

The official gov't sanctioned () white Christmas is indeed 1" snow depth at 12z 12/25.

Hermit Lake is not a true coop in that we only get obs when the MWAC is active. So we do miss snow reports in the shoulder seasons sometimes, but they reported between 191 and 205" in the last couple of seasons. I believe they were trying to install some snotel equipment though, which will be great for mapping snowfall in the Whites. Jay Peak did have 346" in 2000-2001. That season MWN "only" had 297"

I obviously can't say much about the coop reporting itself, but I have no reason to seriously doubt it. But if that assumption's true MWN is probably closer to 350+" on average but loses a great deal to estimation/blow off. It actually works nicely if you use the near 200" average at Hermit Lake (only 3 season's worth of data) or Pinkham Notch's 147" average.

I look at the POR for MWN, and they (full season) range from 140" to 566", Hermit Lake Shelter at the bottom of Tucks has only been providing snow obs for a couple seasons now but that will be fun to compare. In the last three seasons MWN has been at least 100" more than Hermit Lake. Jay Peak on the other hand had a (full season) range of 100" to 350". If they are going to have lower low seasons, they have to have higher high seasons to make up the difference. And I just don't see "mid-slope" sites pushing 600" a year.

See that makes it less believable to me then. In order to average over 300" I think you would have to be including all snowfall, not just ski season.