OceanStWx

Definitely woke up to a pool this morning. Good news is it drains away from the house!

Finally finished up my stable/neutral wind study. If I hold the 925 wind, and surface to 925 depth and lapse rate as independent variables to the surface wind gust as the dependent I get a correlation of 77%. R squared is about 0.60, so 60% of the variance in gusts are explained by those 3 variables. The regression equation wasn't too bad: gust = 31.9 + (0.5 * 925 wind) + (0.9 * lapse rate) - (0.05 * depth) Ran it against an independent data set (2006-2008, study compiled from 2010-2019). I found that my equation was within 2 knots roughly a quarter of the time, 5 knots just under 50% of the time, and within 10 knots 84% of the time. I'm pretty happy with those results, especially for a first guess on the forecast. Edit: All numbers for PWM (surface)/GYX (aloft)

The rains in Maine fall on my open pit reserved for a patio to be built this weekend...

The NBM is pretty robust on temps, so eventually I think it would be strong guidance. The problem is that we would have very little experience with the NBM and its MOS. So hard to tease out the typically biases right away. Going to be some growing pains I'd imagine.

Eventually not even that. I believe the plan is to transition to NBM MOS. There will be a short, long, and extended.

Well they are both going away in the near future, so I wouldn't expect any significant changes to MOS. Any the NAM is on its last legs, as the future will be the FV3 and HRRR.

The edge of the precip is nearly stationary around PWM, so that's kept the gusts going for a couple hours now. Even the WFO managed a 44 knot peak gust.

62 mph at PWM Ripping on the edge of the dry slot

IOSN3 70 knots peak wind

48 knots at PWM. Considering this is an independent data point from my study, I'm really happy with the output of 47.6 knots. Even if PWM goes in a little higher over the next hour.

Weeeeee!

PYM 53 kt peak wind.

I'm maybe more impressed with sustained 34 knots at BOS.

If they do, you should consult a doctor. 57 knots at Conimicut Light.

I'd say Kevin's out with the chainsaw, but it's well past his bedtime.

Gimme a 45-55 kt gust at PWM and I'll be ecstatic.

If eastern MA is still meh at 06z then maybe we can talk bust on the LLJ, but until then we hold our ground.

BOX is doing part of the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) and once the radar is down they can't bring it back up, it's quite literally in pieces. So you are stuck with neighboring radars of the TDWR south of Boston if you have access via RadarScope or something like that.

The downslope signal has been strong for a few days now.

Rookie move. IOSN3 FTW.

69 knots. Nice.

How do you do on downslope winds? I think some parts of western NH will rip with those.

I think there’s a threat that the triple point features enough of a window for surface based convection to include a marginal. It won’t be several supercells forming across the outlook area, but one storm that will be a threat kind of thing.

I'll have to check it out later. I'm crashing after mids. Pants off, dance off at work tonight.