OceanStWx

Best way to get over your lack of snow is to get a trof under you?

Euro got a little stronger in the mid levels. It's a good look.

It does mean a larger area of advisories for trace freezing rain.

GFS seems to be trying to make it a more compact system. Given that the track difference between it and the Euro is not that large, the placement of mid level forcing sure is wildly different. Euro is practically in Canada, GFS hugs just inland from the coast. I'd think a blend of that is closer to reality.

While I think the clown maps are mostly a joke, they can be instructive for trends I think. And the fact that the bigger snow totals don't start popping until it's in the CAR CWA tell me we may have mixing issues in the GYX area.

I think he was talking about North Haven.

Maybe I'm going to light the fuse tonight.

But it's a cool study nonetheless.

Speaking of tax dollars. They are going to have us to supplemental soundings for that but we can't authorize OT for anyone to come in and help with those. So we essentially lose a forecaster on shift during winter weather run up. Sweet deal.

My last midnight shift is tomorrow night. Maybe I just light the fuse and run?

Can't say I'm super surprised. The shortwave didn't even come onshore until around 00z last night.

Funny how we were just having discussions about prime conditions for black ice and bang, here we go.

Midnights are rough.

If I'm being totally honest, I just found a JimmyDean bacon cheddar scramble in the trash.

I honestly have no idea what the intention was there.

Seeder-feeder man, busting the forecast a bit. That deck around 8000-10000 ft is dropping enough ice crystals into the orographic clouds to produce snow showers when they otherwise might not.

The kids must know by now not to bother daddy after the news reports the official BOS snowfall.

You mean the month in which your normal high temp is in the 50s?

But I always grew up with a North Shore and South Shore. So I concede there is a zone between Boston and SE MA.

Precision and accuracy. Models are quite accurate, but they are rarely precise anymore. You aren't going to see run after run of the same solution given both the frequency of runs and model resolution. When your grid scale was 80 km, subtle shifts made little difference to the outcome. When you drill that down to 13 km and start focusing on QPF/snow maps you are going to see some big moves from haves to have nots. There is a reason why the best mets are using the forecast funnel approach (large scale to small, top down). Like mid level magic. It isn't just a term we made up for the picnic tables, it's that modeling frequently overdoes QPF near the low center (with latent heat release) and underestimates forcing via deformation processes (in Canada that reads "DEE-formation PRO-sess-ees").

FV3 is the core, GFS is the name. Still poop emoji.

And Kevin's grew three sizes that day.

Louis just left the board.

Unsurprisingly the changes in that northern stream are driving the wild run to run swings of varying individual pieces of guidance.

That's going to be comparing apples to oranges though until they upgrade the GEFS core too. Right now they are running on separate systems.