OceanStWx

Got the bird in the oven and the WFO's backup generator in case Ekster hydroplanes into a telephone pole on the way into work.

Crank the oven up to 500 and get that turkey done.

Now it's over some guy named George who owns a bank.

I'm not in love with models closing the 700 mb low so far inland, that's usually a good proxy for the dry slot track. GFS is most aggressive in deepening the mid levels, so that explains why it is so robust on snowfall across the southern edge of the snow gradient.

Easy to find the grid for Winni.

I'm not sure we would be discussing it much at the WFO except for the fact that it will be a high travel day plus all of our partners are going home Wednesday and we effectively lose a day of communication there.

Oh definitely not SNE. I would amend my previous post to say north of the Pike.

Good luck with what? All I'm saying is that it is pretty unique that all the clusters' high end goalposts are decent events. Usually there is a total rat in there. I'm still trying to tease out reasoning, but to me that suggests that timing is more of a factor in producing snow than amplification with this system. Aside from holiday travel aspect, I'm pretty skeptical still.

Interesting system for the cluster analysis. There are definitely clusters (the flatter ones) that have lower mean snowfall, but all of the clusters have a solid 90th percentile event. So even the upper end of the flat members can produce a good low end warning event.

Definitely going to have synoptic forcing there, but my gut feeling is that these were more waterspouts moving onshore vs supercells.

I need to go back and try and case study that one (much harder with ::gulp:: data 20 years old), but IWI started the day with 1/4 +SN and ended up with tornadoes not too far away after climbing to near 45 degrees. Must've been warmer on the other side of the warm front too. Buoy water temp at the LNB was like 47 too, so probably had really steep lapse rates from the water to the 3 km level.

The November record will get there eventually. We tied the previous record of 74 in 2020, and then broke it in 2022 (75).

PWM could break the all time Novie high on Friday. Let's do it!

As an addendum, almost all the articles I've read have stated the FAA is opting for some sort of automated computer based software for in route weather decision making, but none of the articles describe what that is. I would have a hard time believing there is computer software at this time that can make decisions about air traffic routing, but dumping people in favor of a computer would certainly save money.

Very much in flux at the moment. Essentially the FAA pays the NWS for roughly 90 mets to staff CWSUs to handle IN FLIGHT forecasts (local WFOs handle the takeoff/landing forecasts). The FAA has been looking to cut costs for years and the CWSUs always seem to be on the chopping block. It appears this time they really tried to make the clean break, but there is plenty of negotiating going on behind the scenes. Local WFOs are not equipped or staffed to be able to handle briefing the FAA on demand, so that's not going to be the solution. Either they come up with a new agreement (maybe reduced staffing?) or they'll contract that forecast out to a company like Scott's. But the key is that they need some centralized entity to collaborate with the FAA. Because it's not just about the in route forecast, it's maintaining "gates" for flights to fly through on the way to the airport. You can't have Southwest and Delta winging it around thunderstorms, you need to the FAA to tell them which heading and what flight level to maintain so you don't have collisions.

Correct. The move from downtown to the airport was too big a change to thread.

Keep in mind that the cool season equations were implemented 10/1 and the transition buffer ended on 10/15.

23 at least at SFM too in the sand pit.

This is why I hate frost advisories. It is so difficult to know exactly when frost will form. I vote hard freeze at 28 and be done with it.

Just passed Dennis' house the other day for the first time. They still have his NOAA observer sign up despite his passing last December. We're absolutely seeing big cool season changes here. We know we have less snow cover days outside of the mountains. But we are also seeing more of what happened in December. Snow that falls in the mountains is "more ripe" and ready to melt when we have the inevitable rainer. In the past the snow would just absorb that rain and we'd move on to the next snow pattern.

The messenger shuffle was really just Ekster using the weather machine to screw western New England out of QPF the whole time.

There is absolutely an argument to be made that urbanization around ASOSs is increasing temperatures by some margin, but like that's where people live and those are real temperatures. We know temps are rising in both urban and rural settings, and land use changes are absolutely a driver of changing climate (it's just not a fossil fuel driven change).

That is usually our first point of contact. Find the CoCoRaHS observers who have a solid reporting history. I know we've reached out to a few by CON. The problem is that you have to be within so many miles of the ASOS and a similar elevation, etc. It's hard to find dedicated weather weenies that meet all those criteria.

Yeah I was going to advertise this too. It's getting harder and harder to find someone to do this for us. We lost AUG years ago and still haven't replaced the observation, for the state capital no less.