OceanStWx

Basically. Our products and web images all cut off a few miles outside our CWA borders, so it's no man's land beyond that. For instance we have a tool that pulls in CAR's snow forecast in case we have to make a statewide map. We don't want to accidentally pull in our own forecast for their area. Because sometimes we do disagree. Yeah, if the lifts get in there it should be able to pound down 3 no problem.

Because that stuff happens outside of your CWA and sometimes even hidden behind ISC you may never notice. Technically I have the ability to forecast all the way to CAR, but I never look at what I'm forecasting up there because it doesn't get sent anywhere. UNLESS you create an image off your whole domain. So it could have been that they chose the coldest guidance for their area which affected NYC, or had too much QPF in an hour that had rain and snow at NYC, etc.

That's likely their forecast over their whole domain area and they forgot to run it with intersite coordination (ISC) on that pulls in the surrounding office forecasts. Oops.

FCC fines incoming for gratuitous nudity?

I think your window is 5-8z if you're going to get it. Check BGM's CWA before normal people go to bed, if they've got a couple strikes around 2-3z I think it's good to go for SNE too.

That has a classic look of latent heat of melting (cooling process) right there. Just drilling the column down to freezing even though it wants to be warmer.

Looks like a parade of poop through the end of the month. But the soundings look pretty decent around 06z tonight. I like seeing those lapse rates start to approach moist adiabatic in the DGZ and above.

Christ that color curve makes the Litchfield Hills look like the White Mountains.

Big snow totals for DVN CWA for sure! I saw 9" around BRL. You may luck out based on the forecast soundings keeping the wet bulbs generally at or below zero for at least a good chunk of the event. We had about the worst case scenario last Thursday with rain to heavy, wet snow that all stuck to the trees with wet bulbs around +1. 12km looked pretty isothermal in northern CT.

We had zero leaf out in my neighborhood and I measured 3.7" out of the last event. We definitely had some large branches down, just lucky that none in the immediate vicinity took out any lines. Though my particular development is buried lines, they start running underground 200 yards up the street.

Yeah, I'm not predicting anyone's backyard here, just that 3+ inches of wet snow will start to take down branches.

Yeah if there are large enough areas that sneak into the 3-5 inch range (and the fact that CT is an outage hotspot) there will be power problems.

I did the same. I was looking at Euro cross sections for CT thinking it's effing cold tonight of course it will be snow, except it's 24 hours from now.

They are 3" And they still get one more shot to see data with the mid shift before they really need to pull the trigger.

Didn't have any up here either but between 3 and 4 inches that was enough to take out the weaker branches.

That's about the highest number I can pick out of Bufkit right now (like ORH) so you're probably right. I think forcing moving from laterally translating to quasi-stationary as it nears the coast is going to be the biggest factor in this being a solid advisory event. Instead of 1-2 hours of thump you may get 3-4 hours instead.

Looks like the best chance of lollis 6+ will be farther west, but I think 4-6 at your elevation is a good starting point. Can always adjust up later right? I think models around 06z are handling the snow fairly well if you use the max wet bulb temp method available on Bufkit, but spit out another inch or so after conditions get much worse. So I'm skeptical of the tail end stuff towards dawn, but the 06z thump looks very real. Shouldn't be hard to stack up 4 in that given the way things are modeled right now.

The highest honor.

Looks fairly similar temp-wise, you'll have a lot of SNE in the magic 0-1C wet bulb zone. That's usually good for the sticky stuff. I noticed a significant uptick in power issues around 4 inches with our last event. That's between 950 and 925 on average, which is why 925 can be a good proxy (but sometimes is too high) but 950 almost guarantees snow if it's below freezing.

I actually don't hate your location.

Even that GFS sounding for BOS is sneaky. Technically accumulates no snow because pytpe doesn't spit any out, but the boundary layer warmth is only about 1400 ft thick. That's pretty close to not being able to fully melt. And if you are snowing hard enough it gets even tougher to keep up with the melting.

It could definitely be a rate dependent pytpe for those on the edge.

Some of the NAM soundings are a little MAUL-y for a time overnight. Near and shortly after 06z could be interesting. DGZ is maybe a shade high in the column, but overall not a bad overlap with omega.

Eye popping, but the reality is that locally we need to look lower in the atmosphere to correlate LLJ and surface gusts. 925 mb is a better match. See below. I don't think this is an overreach for a high wind watch (AS MODELED).