OceanStWx

I look at the POR for MWN, and they (full season) range from 140" to 566", Hermit Lake Shelter at the bottom of Tucks has only been providing snow obs for a couple seasons now but that will be fun to compare. In the last three seasons MWN has been at least 100" more than Hermit Lake. Jay Peak on the other hand had a (full season) range of 100" to 350". If they are going to have lower low seasons, they have to have higher high seasons to make up the difference. And I just don't see "mid-slope" sites pushing 600" a year.

See that makes it less believable to me then. In order to average over 300" I think you would have to be including all snowfall, not just ski season.

Even if you considered obs sites slightly down the mountain that might be better at "catching" snow that blows off the summit, the shoulder seasons where MWN is below freezing and pounding snow while 1000 ft up from the parking lots is 33 and rain makes a huge difference. MWN has some 500" seasons in the record, so if another ski resort is claiming a higher average you would be talking their record seasons being in the 600" range. I have a hard time believing that.

When BTV had Jay Peak as a coop, they averaged 205", elevation between 1875 and 1840 ft. Assuming the lat/lon is correct at NCEI that is off one of the trails about halfway up the mountain.

12.6" doesn't even crack the top 20 for me. I may start counting down until May 1st.

I just feel bad for Kevin's kids watching him drag the tree out to the curb because Christmas is cancelled.

I'll actually second that. It was essentially dry 24 hours up here.

I think we claw and scratch our way to 3-4" in southern NH. We hold.

Oh no, this system was crap on guidance. The only success is that models were consistently showing rather poor snow growth. But moving the best forcing that far north in the last 24 hours was not a great showing.

Wait until he sees the ocean effect on the extended HRRR.

Needle threaders are definitely going to carry more risk at disappearing than the ones in a pattern that is supportive. I mean while we were weenie-ing out on the impending 3 day snow storm, the GFS was showing a potential stemwinder at hour 288. Turns out it was off by 24 hours, but 4 inches of rain later it did sniff out a big system. It was just wet not white.

I'm not talking cherry picking one run, but multiple models showing a couple day window with an event. I never saw any agreement from modeling on what to do with that PV streamer drifting aimlessly across the country.

I would actually argue that they are better at sniffing out a real threat in the long ranges when your realistic window is much larger than when you're trying to pin it down to hours. It's the near term when a 20 mile shift can really wreck a forecast that the higher resolution guidance is showing big differences. That's why when all else fails you need to work from the top down. A model is way less likely to whiff on a jet streak, than a vort max, than the 850 front, etc.

I'm closer to the 4", but that's the ballpark.

I don't know about this FV3 version of the KFS... Still some signs that we may be able to pull off a couple hours up here where we can tick off a couple inches real quick, but it's definitely not a high confidence deal.

I don't think a whole lot changed from the pretty rough look in the snow growth zone, it just got shoved a whole sub-sub-region north (SNE to CNE).

Our onset graphic was 5 am for AFN. METAR KAFN 170952Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN

Lake effect and Rieslings instead of coastal fronts and hazy IPAs?

Definitely not expecting a SNINCR 4/8 at MHT again, but right around midday there is some potential for 1"/hr stuff in a couple hour window.

Simulated reflectivity looks like a summer squall line.

Ginxy doing backflips about Wednesday evening yet? Hi-res guidance looking very WINDEXy.

Last year or so, yes. The science is definitely there for these concentrated discussions now but I wouldn't expect to see any around here soon.

This was the sensitivity map from 12z yesterday. That blue over us was saying lower heights there matched a more suppressed (higher surface pressures over New England) system. So the converse being true, latent heating from convection pumping those heights up would lead to a more amped system and lower pressure over New England. Seems a completely reasonable hypothesis that convection played a significant role here.

Just getting into the office now and first look at the lightning looks pretty favorable for nice moisture transport into our front.

Hazard Simplification wrapped up all advisory level hazards into "Winter Weather Advisory for..." style headlines. Ice Storm Warnings still exist.