OceanStWx

No, I'm dead serious. The likelihood of anyone seeing severe hail at their home in New England is very low. There is a good chance this was their best severe storm of their lives.

Honestly, Hartland, CT just had their best thunderstorm in a generation probably. Folks may never see severe hail again.

100% has happened before on the Plains. New England? Probably a different story.

An hour or so.

Circular leans me towards a couple possibilities, like heavily rimed ice crystals or evaporating sleet too.

Definitely competing interests, with WAA eventually mixing from the SW and dry air eventually eroding from the NE. But it's naked snow angels until then.

Actually makes a lot of sense to me. The heavier precip will be forced through a deeper part of the column, tapping the warm air aloft. The lighter precip will be low level in nature where temps are cold enough for snow. But definitely flipped on its head from how we typically think of these things.

What a difference a 40 mile shift makes. AUG dry but PWM +SN. That dry air was supposed to be farther SW by now.

If pressures rise in ME this evening that increases the ageostrophic drain to the SW, as winds will tend to blow in towards lower pressure (i.e. high to low).

MHT Bufkit soundings still have a stout cold layer through 09z. Like 4000 ft deep. I would also be pretty skeptical of any guidance that tries to rush the warm up above 32.

My guess is AUG had very light snow which tricked the ASOS into thinking it was UP. That's a pretty common ASOS error.

MWN winds are nearly prefect to max CAD and set up the drain down the terrain.

Now that just sounds like one of Scooter's made up Maine town names.

Could've done better if that band overnight had pushed a few miles NE. They were just outside the best of it. But from there down through GYX it's actually snowing quite nicely at the moment. Probably a little f-gen enhancement on the battleground between dry advection and WAA.

We didn't give you one December 2-3? Fried chicken for dinner?

That's where so many of our ptype forecast tools at the NWS offices fail. The one they are pushing everyone towards at the moment goes off max wet bulb temp. And +5C is enough to fully melt = lots of freezing rain. Not every model has the capability to provide probability of refreezing to sleet grids, which increase as your cold air magnitude gets larger. Thickness grids attempt to get at it, but they are fixed and not ideal for all situations. Ideally we would have a functioning area above or below freezing tool to determine ptype. It's coming but it's there yet. And even then it would still miss low level snow generation, because it's looking from the top down.

The Bufkit soundings for MHT do show a cold magnitude around -6C where decent omega just below that level. That would be my best guess.

Not really. I think there's going to be a lot of mix to contend with. Forecast soundings actually get worse overnight as the warm nose pushes farther north, so now is the best looking time for snow growth.

And that's the rosiest of model scenarios that I'm seeing. The NAM holds that changeover off until overnight and by then it's too late.

And you can see the northern edge of precip starting to sag south as the dry air feeds in. Dews across ME are dropping in the last hour.

There's some faint hope. Soundings are pretty toasty aloft through the late afternoon/early evening. Once they cool off the DGZ is pretty dry though, so the snow may not be pretty.

Nothing worse than being at work but having no part in the forecast.

2.8" when I woke up this morning. Yeah, not sure I'd be calling that a dry slot. The real dry slot is over BUF. It may be a shredded warm conveyor at times, but we're not in a dry slot.

Not looking good for your internet again... You're in a "great" position for icing out of this event.

This has a look of elevation ice. That cold for a lot of NH is quite deep, but if your hill is already 1000 ft up that's less time to refreeze to sleet. Monadnocks up through Sunapee could be the winners.