OceanStWx

I'll gladly pull the snow stake out with the Christmas lights in a couple weeks.

I mean it may be a sad look to a once promising pattern, but we do this same song and dance every season. We've "wasted" December, when a place like ORH only averages about 10" through this date and has 7.5" on the season. The season could still end up just fine.

Can't have too much life left. NBM MOS will replace it and the GFS MOS sooner rather than later.

There's something to be said for the ECMWF style of modeling. They have one, very good model and then they just adjust it from there to suit their needs. You get 4x daily deterministic, you get an ensemble, you get an extended run. They aren't wasting resources running a GFS, NAM, nested NAM, HRRR, SREF, CFS, etc. Now the trick is creating a very good model to start with.

Most of the ensemble members are still pretty meh, but the snowiest ones are definitely the more amplified patterns.

That was my thought when the power went out last night. I had just texted the NAM LLJ to Scooter and Ryan and the neighborhood went total blackout.

Let's go Wiz

I could start you at 50 mph. I mean at the very least you've got pressure changing by about 3 mb per hour. That'll get the air moving.

There are a few notable things from articles like this lately. I highlighted one of them. These companies are going to focus on things they can monetize. Kevin doesn't care about wind power production, he just wants to know if his oaks are going to end up in his living room. Otherwise they are more or less describing AI pattern recognition. They need like 40 years of reanalysis to train their model, so it's not as if they just invented a new and better model.

For those interested, here is what goes into the NBM expected snowfall. If you look at the probabilistic NBM guidance, it takes each of these 100 members and puts them in order. The lowest snow amount is the 1st percentile, the highest is the 99th, and so on.

Bryce picking Christmas gifts out of the trees in the front yard?

Beer?

Good news for the Maine Midcoast moose population. Hi-res stuff is hinting at a little instability injection as this thing starts wrapping up around midnight tomorrow night. Theta-e lapse rates are pretty close to negative for several hours, and the DGZ gets to be like 200 mb deep. That's a great sign for high snowfall rates. If the synoptic lift was a little stronger I would be thinking some extreme snow rates would be possible.

I know the day before Bufkit had GYX around 1500 ft of surface warmth but Rumford was more like 900. That's all the difference in the world.

Not really sure it was an aloft thing. The warm layer near the ground was just a little too close to 1500 ft. I like to see it closer to 1000 ft to overcome low level warm air with rates and latent cooling.

Why are you reposting your wedding vows here?

Yes that makes sense, they're using Bourgouin, so if the initial phase was ZR (drizzle most likely) and S there is enough negative area to refreeze the ZR to PL.

Without digging into it, my best guess is perhaps ptype is based on thickness. You could conceivably have thicknesses that are equivalent of having a layer above freezing without actually being above freezing (if they sounding was close enough to 0C over a large enough layer).

My freshmen year we did top 100" but I think 30-35% of that fell on winter break when nobody was around to see it. Just came back to crusty banks and bitter cold. The Finger Lake effect was always fun because a 5 degree wind direction difference meant it was over the Cornell coop site, which was how we verified the forecast contest.

Since technically winter starts tomorrow, I'm running through my fall training on a quiet day. We're actually getting better at providing shorter, hyper-focused training modules rather than the longer, more comprehensive ones of the past. Some good NBM stuff in GYX's assigned training this year. It's a good reminder to myself that any deterministic NBM product is expert weighted (i.e. based on verification). Any probabilistic product is equally weighted, and therefore model biases can affect the forecast. For instance, Kuchera is one of the prominent snow ratios used (as much as 50% in some cases), usually in combination with Cobb and thickness. So certain events with a cold snow, the higher percentiles of the NBM may be biases high thanks to the incorporation of Kuchera ratios.

The day 6 GFS blizzard once it gets to day 2: "Now you see it, now you don't motherfucker"

My wife had a bit of melting too, when the power went out at her parents' and they found out that the propane company had skipped their last delivery and the generator didn't run.

Strongest lift now for NH (arriving shortly in ME) with overlapping 250 mb divergence and 850 convergence. A few hours left to pound I would think before any dry slotting.

I don't know, 4" of the sloppy stuff seems to be the magic number for outages. I would think NH is about to see an uptick shortly.