OceanStWx

Pretty cool to see that little oval of September 1938 within a sea of cool season bombs.

Those 940s are all tropical too. January 2018 is probably the most prominent in my mind (949 I believe), but I don't have a steel trap for dates and events like Will. My brain is more of a wet paper bag these days.

Likely what happened here is that dense fog (+FG) was added to the grids, which carries a 1/4 mile visibility. Then drizzle was added and intensity was based off visibility (which was 1/4 mile because of the fog) so you get +DZ. But in reality I'm not sure I've ever seen a forecaster explicitly forecast DZ or +DZ, it's almost always -DZ.

Deep winter.

At least on the NWS side of things, we're not even forecasting QPF for that entire system yet. It's too far out.

My wife hit me with the hundredths place, she says 1.25" (plus my 0.1" before I left) but I'm rounding up to 1.4"

Watching the Conway webcam, and that is a real threat for my backyard. Which is all that matters.

Very nice aggregates. Not shattered.

Oh my backyard snowfall ob. Bit of an overperformer in the north of the CWA though. A few more 6s on the board than I thought in that northern half of our area.

Almost gave you shit on the phone because I had that whopping 0.1"

Oh man, every weenie on this board can hear this exact sound in their head. Perfect description. I'm not sure I can count it as a Christmas miracle yet (0.1" at 7 am) but it sure isn't a Grinch.

Solid guess. CON averages 8 days with a average temp of 8 degrees or less each winter.

I wouldn't call the lift strong be any means, but the DGZ or near-DGZ is deep (which helps because the core of the DGZ is quite high in the atmosphere despite the surface air mass).

Scooter is sitting down with his kids tonight and explaining that there are snow starved children in northern New England that need the snow more than they do.

I've also always tended to think about it in terms of aggregates. It's pretty rare to have pure dendrites falling without some clumping, sticking, interlocking, etc. The wind breaks those aggregates apart. But the aggregates are forming down here, not up in the DGZ.

I've been to two classic winter Titans games. The 2004 coldest Pats game, top 20 coldest NFL game AND the 2009 59-0 October snow game. But yes, too cold run a tap line from a keg so all beer was served out of bottles/cans. The head on the beer would freeze between sips, so you would have to poke your finger through the get the next gulp.

I wish I actually had more info from the techs on this. It's been nearly daily that AOMC is calling us to let us know there have been failures on some sensors or another.

Unfortunately our primary driver of temps was not advection but latent cooling. Always a risky proposition. Forcing got weaker, precip intensity is lower, less metling/cooling at the surface.

That's the real limiting factor here. It's moving so fast that you only have a few hours to accumulate. Hard to pull off much more than a sneaky advisory when that happens.

It's definitely possible. These kinds of lateral quasi-stationary bands can surprise just because the forcing will be narrow but persistent.

It's a good example of the absolutely insane way the computer tries to put our forecast to text (remember I can't control what the P&C says beyond drawing the forecast). You're forecast is roughly 1.4 inches, so it reads that as 1-3 inches even though 3 inches is unlikely. It also says rain and snow before 3 am, when the predominate weather during that period is slight chance of rain and definite snow. Sure rain and snow is technically correct, but one of those precip types is more likely than the other.

I've embraced it so hard that we're doing a week and a half in Florida this February. Only need to survive ~ 5 weeks of winter now.

We'll forever be trying to kick the 2015 football.