OceanStWx

Found out my neighbors are moving. I like them, but they didn't want me to cut down the tree that was shading my raised beds (it is like right on the property line). LFG is right!

So much is happening above our heads it's hard to know what exactly is going on. At least initially all probationary mets were let go. Then we've heard that this was a mistake and 1340s (meteorologists) were being waived as public safety, but it's always easier to terminate someone than bring them back. It doesn't include all the support staff, researchers, modelers (which tend to be group as something else like a 1301 physical scientist). It's been a steady drain for years with tight budgets and the usual drip of retirements (about 5% per year), but between this and the Fork in the Road resignations this is likely the largest reduction in staff since modernization in the early to mid 90s. Next up will be the Ides of March deadline for agencies formulating a plan for RIFs (reduction in force). Nobody is sure whether the NWS will be granted a public safety waiver on that end either. We're typically essential for gov't shutdowns but have never been formally considered public safety. It could amount to staff reductions, or location reductions (cancelled leases), or both. If you have strong feelings either way, it won't hurt to contact your reps.

Just a 1 hour loop!? I think I need it longer than that.

With everything.

That run is like 1" QPF as freezing rain. Average ILR is like 70%.

It's been very localized of late. 2008 in NH got it good, 2013 parts of the Kennebec Valley, last March on the southwest Maine coast. That type of ice should be expected every 2-3 years. The big boy regional events are more like 15+ years. There are definitely parts of Maine are ready for nature's tree trimming.

Most guidance has a hint of snow showers for southern VT today, but in reality most models are dogshit when it comes to these shallow upslope snow showers.

Well, it's got a really long runway so you're less likely to slide off it.

Since MLK I've got like 23" It's snowed on 12 of those 21 days.

Me when I get home from work and someone asks me the forecast:

I didn't think so, I was just highlight that a little miss on QPF can be a nice bust on snowfall when the ratios are so high.

True story though, when I measured the snow and told my wife we got 10" she asked "what happened to 1-3?" She said that was our forecast, even though our house was in a winter storm warning. My guess is she was reading the P&C that said accumulations 1-3 inches and missed the Saturday night 4-7 inches.

I ended up being about 0.10" off on QPF for that area. But when you end up with 50% more SLR, you get 4 inches busted on the high side.

9.7 Boothbay, 8.0 Bath

I'm not sure why I don't just draw a hot dog bun shaped edit area over your head every event and nudge those amounts up.

It's been a pretty rough run of snow depth locally since 2018, and local research has definitely shown that we're losing total days with snow cover in the winter. This one definitely has the feeling of the December 2020 storm on the ratio front. That modeled 300 mb deep DGZ was definitely a strong signal for upping SLRs. It's just so damn hard to push yourself to forecast more than 20:1. GYX has at least a 23:1 from the morning observation, so my CoCoRaHS gauge may not have been far off.

I think it's only the second time since 2018 that the flag has been buried. I can't recall being over 15" on the ground all that often. Maybe my memory is still there. I checked CoCoRaHS and I have December 2020 (20"), March 2023 (18"), and today (19") as my only snow depths over 15".

You could just tell from a peek out the window. I could see the individual dendrites sparkling and knew we had ourselves a fluff bomb.

You'll never hurt yourself if you just assume all accumulation stops once the DGZ dries out. If you pick up a weenie half inch, embrace the good fortune, but most of the time that's all she wrote.

10.2" for me. But my CoCoRaHS can overflowed. I could only get 0.35" liquid out of it, but I grabbed a snow core off the board and left it at home to take care of later. The flag marking the snow boards is officially buried too as I'm up to 19" on the ground as well. Never a doubt.

There are a few reasons why I prefer the over on QPF. I'm seeing soundings supportive of around a 15:1 average in the area (200-300 mb deep could support upwards of 20:1 at times). There's a decent crosshair signature around 06z (estimating between PSM and LCI soundings), that's pretty good for 6" snow. The WAA forcing is strong and displaced north of QPF max, which is a red flag that some deterministic guidance may not have things far enough north (which is not uncommon for a high bias on QPF on the equatorward side of systems). The only pause I would have is if there is a messenger shuffle south today. That would introduce a DGZ that is starting to get a bit high in the column for ideal ratios, that's why my totals drop off sharper to the north. I'm not sure I've seen anything significant enough to warrant concerns where I have warnings up.

Let's call it 15:1 average SLR there, that's going less than .33" QPF on the high side, 0.20" on the low side. 71% of the ensemble members are 0.5" or more QPF. Gimme the over.

That's advection from DAW though.