OceanStWx

That run is like 1" QPF as freezing rain. Average ILR is like 70%.

It's been very localized of late. 2008 in NH got it good, 2013 parts of the Kennebec Valley, last March on the southwest Maine coast. That type of ice should be expected every 2-3 years. The big boy regional events are more like 15+ years. There are definitely parts of Maine are ready for nature's tree trimming.

Most guidance has a hint of snow showers for southern VT today, but in reality most models are dogshit when it comes to these shallow upslope snow showers.

Well, it's got a really long runway so you're less likely to slide off it.

Since MLK I've got like 23" It's snowed on 12 of those 21 days.

Me when I get home from work and someone asks me the forecast:

I didn't think so, I was just highlight that a little miss on QPF can be a nice bust on snowfall when the ratios are so high.

True story though, when I measured the snow and told my wife we got 10" she asked "what happened to 1-3?" She said that was our forecast, even though our house was in a winter storm warning. My guess is she was reading the P&C that said accumulations 1-3 inches and missed the Saturday night 4-7 inches.

I ended up being about 0.10" off on QPF for that area. But when you end up with 50% more SLR, you get 4 inches busted on the high side.

9.7 Boothbay, 8.0 Bath

I'm not sure why I don't just draw a hot dog bun shaped edit area over your head every event and nudge those amounts up.

It's been a pretty rough run of snow depth locally since 2018, and local research has definitely shown that we're losing total days with snow cover in the winter. This one definitely has the feeling of the December 2020 storm on the ratio front. That modeled 300 mb deep DGZ was definitely a strong signal for upping SLRs. It's just so damn hard to push yourself to forecast more than 20:1. GYX has at least a 23:1 from the morning observation, so my CoCoRaHS gauge may not have been far off.

I think it's only the second time since 2018 that the flag has been buried. I can't recall being over 15" on the ground all that often. Maybe my memory is still there. I checked CoCoRaHS and I have December 2020 (20"), March 2023 (18"), and today (19") as my only snow depths over 15".