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Yaz

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Yaz

  1. Yaz
  2. Yaz
    Isnt’t the Fv3 supposed to replace the GFS, or am I getting my models confused?
  3. Yaz
  4. Yaz
    GFS 18z predicted warm nose never materialized ….0z initialization at two locations: so freezing rain never materialized
  5. Yaz
    Mod snow with sleet 27f Rockaway NJ ground covered
  6. Yaz
    And borderline RH’s and lift in the DGZ.
  7. Yaz
    The GFS warm nose around 800 mb yielding the freezing rain….. let’s see if it will be correct or not for tonight.
  8. Yaz
    1” 25f Rockaway NJ
  9. Yaz
    Interesting. Thanks. 1. How strong is the correlation between MJO phase and temperature? 2. And how good are the projections of MJO progression. Back when I studied these types of things, the material was often a bit short in length and lacking a lot of detail. -Greg
  10. Yaz
    Let me know if anybody wants to learn how to use BUFKIT. It is a free software program that interprets American model output (i.e. GFS, NAM, et al) that is also freely available.
  11. Yaz
    Below map shows Max snow growth region between purple lines where RH > 70% (temps between -12C and -18C).....which leads me to believe that snow rate should pickup around 7:00 pm in Morristown, assuming NAM is correct.(?)
  12. Yaz
    BufKIT for MMU 0z NAM (hourly from right to left...with blue as SNOW..total is 5.2"....snow ratio is the thin light blue line....2 meter temp (thin red line) and DP (thin green line); when green becomes bright green is when RH exceeds 90%.
  13. Yaz
    GFS is all over the place
  14. Yaz
  15. Yaz
  16. Yaz
    Rockaway NJ 2:50 am Morris County
  17. Yaz
    This web site from COMET/Meted program
  18. Yaz
    Heavy snow Fords 31f
  19. Yaz
    The Dendrite growth should be very favorable but an above-freezing surface can spoil the ratio.
  20. Yaz
  21. Yaz
    3 am. <994<994
  22. Yaz
    994. with 2 hr pressure tendency
  23. Yaz
    6z NAMers, bring it on
  24. Yaz
    non Kuchie
  25. Yaz
    HRRR 3 hr trend thru 19z indicating tick north and more qpf
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