MGorse

Yes.

Hmmm, interesting.

Okay sure, but at least it will snow again.

Alrighty then.

The whole sun angle thing is for real, however some including myself have been burned by this before. Regarding this storm, through about 2 PM Thursday looks like when roads will be the worst but yeah once the snow intensity lessens roads should improve during peak daylight. Of course sleet does not melt as quick on roads so that is a different story.

For the record we did talk last night. There was only 1-2 inches of snow difference between us. Once totals pass 8.0 the next range is plotted, which in this case is 8-12 inches. I did not want that displayed yet as people would gravitate to the 12 inches. We were well collaborated with our other offices.

Yup as the models tend to erode the CAD to fast especially in northeast PA and northwest NJ.

Good point as we do not want the windshield wiper effect regarding amounts and headlines.

If impacts look to be high but amounts may end up falling short of warning criteria, then the warning can be maintained (impact based warnings). This helps to keep messaging consistent given the high impact aspect. Now I will say that based on the latest forecast, ice amounts are no where near warning criteria for ice for some areas but a warning remains in effect. Changes could be coming through the afternoon. From a messaging standpoint for this storm, it does look odd that some places are under an ice storm warning while nearby areas are under a winter weather advisory with very similar ice amounts forecast. I can see some confusion about that.

Warning criteria there is 5 inches for the 12 hour criteria (used to be 4 inches), and 7 inches for the 24 hour criteria. Edit: Saw the map posted earlier.

I never get the overlapping ranges.

That was basically to match up with Lancaster County in NWS State Colleges area.

Just keep in mind that is probabilities based and is auto generated based on many models with using our deterministic forecast as the mode. But yeah lots could go wrong with this system.

Looks like more guidance showing light rain to start from I-95 east. Also, current temperatures just about at today’s forecast highs already in southern NJ and it is only 10:30 AM.

You could be right. It will depend on where the FGEN band sets up for a time.

Copy that.

Easton is obviously not ABE. Like I said before, the reliability of the ABE snow observer is very good. Thank you for the kind words regarding my office. We strive to do the best we can.

There is intense frontogenesis (FGEN) forecast by the NAM which is resulting in a period of robust precipitation rates. This setup looks to favor a robust FGEN band.

My offices spotter page is linked below. There are currently no classes scheduled. Probably not until the Spring. The classes are free and are held virtually. https://www.weather.gov/phi/skywarn

We found out a trained spotter in Sussex County NJ cleared their snowboard to frequently which resulted in a higher amount, so we did not use that report. Our ABE snow observer is very thorough and we trust the measurements. The official airport measurements are taken every 6 hours and the board is cleared.

This storm probably won’t happen as I am off from work this weekend.

I guess I don’t count since I post much less here.

Here we are on day 4 with snow falling in at least parts of the area. Impressive.

Interesting thread.

Looks like the 12z EC has the Monmouth and Ocean counties jackpot, lock it in.