Alfoman

You sound like my wife

Way too much NS interaction too early, leads to a way more flat solution

Would not say it is out of the cards completely just yet - amount of members showing a secondary wave sliding off the cost doubled on the 6Z GEFS. This is a delicate balancing act between the initial low in question and the real potential right behind it. The GFS and CMC have transitioned into a quicker phase of shortwaves out west, instead of slowing things down by keeping energy dragged out in the SW. If we can slow the phase and have it dig further, generating more time for the cold to filter back in post storm #1...there could be something here. Lot has to go right here though as always.

Thank you ya'll for providing all the historical context for the younger millennials. I moved up to the DMV area a few years back and I am still learning all the folklore from decades-past. Sitting in the Southeast during the early 2000s-2010s periods, I felt like those smaller 1-5' inch storms were a more regular occurrence up North but those have seem to have subsided some since the 80s. Can't even get excited about a clipper potential anymore! November is always such a tough month of model watching. Nothing particularly exciting going on in the tropical Atlantic while we are stuck to speculate on the winter pattern as we enter mid to late December. The transitionary period is where I feel like the cliff jumpers start setting up their chair cliff-side - rabid Pacific doomsdayers meet long range model blocking truthers. Cheers to November

While still difficult to see on radar with attenuation preventing us from observing the west side of the eyewall clearly - it looks as if the original eyewall is already merging with the secondary maxima. It's a race against the clock on whether the storm can mostly complete the EWRC before the shear/dry air intrusion overcome the structure of the storm. I genuinely am surprised on how quickly this EWRC commenced though...

Absolutely agree - not blaming NOAA in the slightest, just saying I wish we did have some data coming in via recon at the moment. NOAA does the best they can given budget restraints and limited planes (plus the hazard like you said)

An absolute crime we don't have a plane in there right now - want to see the peak this gets to.

Want to relay an important caveat to all the early ensembles and models - the placement of the broad LLC will be critical in the GOM track. Regardless of whether it has a weak surface reflection at the moment, land interaction over Cuba and the mountains on the west side of the island will likely cause some re-structuring of the mid-level and low level circulation. The 12Z GFS has the broad vorticity elongated as it passes Western Cuba at 60 hours but has the LLC forming on the northern fringe of that vort - could easily see a shift by 100s of miles if that formation happens west of that spot. Anyone from LA to the FL coast should be on alert - once its go time, there's not much stopping immediate strengthening.

Not sure if we will hit below 33 until after the precip already moves out - will still be fun to watch the snow fall tonight. Just think the amp and shift north definitely made the already marginal temp situation for DC proper worse! I'll take my 1-2 and run though!

I think the Euro evolution is our best shot to get our big (or larger) ticket storm but it is going to be a delicate solution to achieve. We really need that NS to drop down and begin the phase at the exact right moment for this to work and even if it does, the interior is favored in this kind of setup. Good news is we did see the SS dip deeper and a less noisy Eastern Canada allowing more cold air to filter in but Euro much more aggressive with that TPV lobe. Even with a +NAO in place, with all that energy rotating around in Canada, we could see a phased storm time itself correctly as long as we can get the STJ to actually produce a potent wave or two instead of that sheared flat shit it keeps throwing our way.

For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours... Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD.

GFS slightly north of 12z and 18z position at 84 hours...this is not a winner in the slighest Hope Euro and the EPS tell a different picture and the GFS is not leading the way on this

NS farther north at 72 hours, our shortwave more amped - less confluence, less cold air, lower surface pressure

Almost identical low placement to 12Z, just more amped and axis of precip moves north

Surface low slightly more north and more amped through 72 hours Edit: We need this to slow down or our cold press continues to get worse moving into the window, GFS progressively speeding this up slightly each run