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Everything posted by Sn0waddict
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
23F. Looks like the first legit heavy band is about to come over me.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yep that’s what I was saying. It’s scattered and gets washed away. NAM hinted at this, getting some of these splotches all the way up to the Hudson valley.- 1,011 replies
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Temp went from 27.5 to 23.5 after it started snowing. That dew point of 3 came in handy. Snow now picking up in intensity at that big time band inches closer.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Lake effect isn’t real snow though..- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
You can see it quite well on CC. There looks like a warm younger extending from east PA and into Jersey. Could wash away eventually. But the sleet risk is there until the north movement stops and it starts turning east, bringing in a more northerly flow.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
All models projected the sleet line to be close or over the metro area. Do you all really think it’s just going to stay comfortably away towards philly? It will get dangerously close but if lucky it will stay just to the south of a lot of the metro area. So far it’s pushing through PA but it’s having a tough time advancing through NJ- 1,011 replies
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First flurries here. 26F
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My future wife has a house in Starrucca, PA Guess I should of made the trip there.
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I thinking 8-14 will do it. Anything less would be a disappointment after following this for a week honestly, but after last year I suppose I would have to just be happy with what I got. Mentioned it in the nyc obs thread but I can see the ground level cold over performing at least. The dew point is still 3F!
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Ya I could see that if precip lightens up for an hour or two, no fuss there. Only would be annoyed if we missed out on the heavier stuff due to sleet, which I doubt at this point.
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Nice was born and raised in Milford. Can be a frustrating spot for snow at time but we might have just enough cold air to squeak this one out. Just gotta hope the mid levels don’t torch at all. Good luck!
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Ya I mentioned that earlier. 27/3 here. Ground level temps should stay below freezing IMO.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Man it’s got that snow feel out there. 26F with a dew point of 3.- 1,011 replies
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When I hear of a sleet storm that’s the first thing I think of.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Hot daymn cmon IBM let this be your shining moment. -
Likewise, the plumes are always just fun to look at though . For example the mean in Scranton is 22 inches including one model that gives them 15 inches in three hours! Best here is 8 inches in 3 hours, which would still be incredible lol
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For what it’s worth the HRRR seems pretty cold, holding off most of the sleet for NYC until 07z
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Nam looks noticeably warmer with 850s at the onset of the storm. Hopefully just a fluke.
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That track looks good to me. Similar to the NAM.
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It practically touches Long Beach island as well. Most NW model I have seen. Also has a wild coastal front.
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CMC not surprisingly looks similar to the RGEM, they are the most NW of any the models at the moment.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Not Mt Tolland approved. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It’s in the same spot, and same strength really. It’s drops over a foot in western ct. Cant say I see any issues. -
I’m sure it’s a terrible model but the 0z WRF-NMM is what this board should be rooting for.
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