Ralph Wiggum

Doctor No time. Hit us with some winning pbp Randy!

Someone will pop on and say that is t a true block just a strong ridge which does us no good.

Yet the CMC and both ens increase the chances. So if you want to buy the gfs op from run to run, go for it.

CMC is snow on mix on Rain on snow

Still think that NAO never fully stops retrograding from Scandinavia and eventually links up with the SER in a full lat ridge feature. I think our window is Feb 25-March 6 though Chuck claims the best window actually follows as the full lat ridge breaks and reloads up top after the 8th. What are your thoughts on the NAO/SER hookup?

Euro has the same signal just slightly farther to our South. Active period coming.

GFS is a crusher. 1-2' verbatim. Hope you all have buckled up and been patient. It's go time.

Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here

It's happening, or still too soon?

Base state?

Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out

GFS an 12z has a couple snow->mix threats (pretty common thump to slop for the time of year). I did however get a kick out of the historic ice storm is shows around 330. Has a monster NAO block this run. If that idea is anywhere close to verifying, all bets are off. Anything can happen.

My thoughts are similar wrt the better opportunity a few days later. I mentioned this in a few posts earlier, the GFS is notorious for rushing things usually by 3-5 days. We'll have to see what happens with next weekend before jumping into the calendar flip period.

Again, I think the GFS is rushing the NAO and more likely we are turning the calendar page when we score. Ens means a few days later on the better looks.

I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there.

Joe Biden?

You had to go there didn't you?

Nah, not 93. March 58

Is it time for the "It's happening" jawn yet?

We take....weenie 18z gfs run.

I don't hate this look on the ens mean:

This is a look that will work. +PNA building, -NAO, 50/50.....this isn't quite over yet.

GFS has 2 snow events ...the early March system has heck of a potential.

SSWE doing it's dirty work on guidance.

That's the way we score in March with a convoluted flow and HL blocking.