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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Slid south
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Decent camps S and E of the mean. Encouraging.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I mean, the ops are close to getting many snow-starved places either on the board or adding a modest amount to seasonal totals. Like you said, not really a bad spot to be at this range.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    120 sounds good. 120 proof Knob Creek Reserve Barrell that is.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Like other threats the op and ens begin to converge or move closer towards one another. Same time frame every system this year. Still have plenty of time for things to move a better direction. Storm still there so there's that. What are we all drinking for HH?
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    After the system there are big-time differences wrt the handling of the HL...GFS vs CMC:
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS never really establishes an NAO block where as the CMC does then links it to the SER in a full lat ridge
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    So the GFS went from wavy gravy to overamped bomb in 2 runs. K.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC is trying but made some adjustments at h5 that weren't very favorable. Close tho
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    NAO moving into the favored area alot slower this run. That won't help push the boundary S. Hp pulling NE as opposed to seeping S and E last couple runs.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC doing the same thing.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Definitely not a colder more suppressed look this run.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    12z gfs that lobe of the pv N of Lake Superior in Canada continues to trend farther W each run. Unsure what implications this will have. Western US trof doesn't seem as deep thru 132
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep. Kicker seems to be aiding in moving along faster too.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    NAO taking its dear old time on the icon and doesn't force the NS wave thru far enough S nor fast enough. 50/50 is there. Alas, that's enough dissecting of this model more than a week out.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    So the ICON takes a really good track under us but is warm asf. Has the trail wave but look like it didn't allow the preceding front enough time/space to dampen the flow enough out ahead, ie, slower NS energy.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Narrow deathband on the fv3.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Actually I stand corrected on the 12k nam....scaled back the 'big event' for tomorrow. Surface maps looked improved, snowfall maps backed off. Assuming it will be a mood flakes kind of day
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Ahhh, I see.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, it isn't debris from salting the roads, so what is it?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    12z NAM 12k is still Namming us for tomorrow. Extended the duration and slightly increased amounts fwiw. 3k version wants nothing to do with it.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    All 3 major ops are not agreeing with the means of a stronger cutter low in the GL fwiw. This is that range tho where the ops have generally done their own thing then once within 144-168 hrs have gone back towards the ens looks. Today's runs are going to be telling imho wrt seeing if we move towards one camp vs the other.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is not alone btw. CMC is not a cutter look. Really morphed last 4 runs into a followup wave thing that slides under the NAO-50/50 dipole.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    With that said, also don't want that main energy lagging too far behind allowing any dampening that occurred to start the return flow well out ahead of that main energy. Timing is critical.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    @psuhoffman We may have found a hero to help us reverse or halt things: ChatGPT - Climate Change
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