Ralph Wiggum

Right?!? Why can't this be under 72 hrs ffs. Loving the general look tho. Classic late season way to score with a followup wave type deal. Gotta hope the NAO doesn't try and squash it. Need the SER base state thing to not disappear completely when we could actually use a little push back. Feeling this threat.

You've been patient so I have a seat for you on the backloaded bandwagon. Be sure to watch your step boarding and buckle up when you find your seat.

The appearance of the pattern evolution wrt the 50/50 low and -NAO dipole around March 3-5 continues to develop among the various pieces of guidance. There are now several ind ens members beginning to honk and the ops are starting to see the looks up top and reflect down into the lower 48. Again, the threat(s) as we moving thru March are real and starting to increase. In like a lion:

NAMs came N for Saturday. 12k has coating -2" type deal extreme SE PA. 3k is mood flakes but a jucier jump N vs 18z.

These are ensembles. They don't show "positive growth snow". That ens mean is smoothed and is quite impressive tbh. Some monster hits among the individual members. Euro weeklies, CFS, and GFSx all have the same pattern progression and idea as we near the Ides. Couldn't care less if it melts in a day or hours. That is a realistic expectation given the calendar. I would enjoy every flake as it falls.

Ah yes, the SREFs. The NAM ensembles. A very dependable and accurate piece of guidance. Times like these I miss the CRAS.

So you're saying as soon as this thread was made guidance starting losing the flizzard? Interesting.

18z GFS and ens were as good as I've seen the entire winter. Strong signal emerging around the Ides of March as well. Guys, I'm dead serious when I say this is far from over. LFG!

I was waiting for you, and you didn't disappoint. Well-done.

I wonder which way the CMC will move at 0z

Ens means don't like the early March threat. Means have the low passing N and W with redevelopment too late/far N. Likely looking at a thump to something sort of deal if the looks at HL hold. Pretty certain the HECS depicted on yesterday's 12z gfs was a one and done blip. Still signals across the means going thru mid March that we aren't done tracking and the weeklies keep hope alive thru early April. Pretty much playing out as expected...backloaded if we are going to score with a delay in spring arriving. Never a doubt lol.

6z gfs 6-10"....we r losing the hecs and mecs but might end up with secs which I take secs when I can get it at my age.

Sleetnado blend

CMC improved. 6-12"

CFS is in agreement during this period: Then has a half decent H5 look towards the end of March with a semblance of a ridge out West, a -NAO, and a flat SER: It keeps the BN theme going thru the first week of April: Enjoy the warm day tomorrow while you can

18z still has it, nudged N. Noise at this point.

I haven't given up on the Golden ticket yet sir.

We garnish with turds now? Fits the winter I guess.

Ridge is much improved but the southern energy is slower to move out which allows height to pump out ahead.

Why everytime you say this do I picture a gentleman in a tux getting ready to spin the roulette wheel? Well-distingushed gentleman, might I add.

PNA ridge at 198 looks improved

And we know this will probably be closest to verifying. Until we get help out west I dont care how epic the Atlantic side looks during this Nina. I'm holding out hope for a +PNA spike but without it, this one is going to trend toward toast as well.

Same thing if ppl post "omg look how epic the atlantic side h5 looks" over and over. I'm posting how we need more help than that. I will back the foot off the brake pedal posts, fair enough...I hear you.

Last time I will post a rebuttal here regarding the same general thoughts. Look out West. A deep -PNA is NOT going to do it. I don't care if the PV drops under the NAO (which we saw in Dec mind you, and we got the avocado polar overwhelming pattern). Let's jeep an eye on the PNA and hope we can even time a transient spike at the right time. It can happen but I really think this is the only way we score here regardless what a 240 hour surface op shows right now verbatim.

As we have been discussing ad nauseum we can get the most epic Atlantic look you want to see, but if this year has proven anything it is that without a +PNA we are staring down the barrel of the same loaded "close but no cigar" pattern. Now I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying that unless we get the right trend out west we aren't going anywhere with this one. Just my $.02