Ralph Wiggum

GFS never really establishes an NAO block where as the CMC does then links it to the SER in a full lat ridge

So the GFS went from wavy gravy to overamped bomb in 2 runs. K.

CMC is trying but made some adjustments at h5 that weren't very favorable. Close tho

NAO moving into the favored area alot slower this run. That won't help push the boundary S. Hp pulling NE as opposed to seeping S and E last couple runs.

CMC doing the same thing.

Definitely not a colder more suppressed look this run.

12z gfs that lobe of the pv N of Lake Superior in Canada continues to trend farther W each run. Unsure what implications this will have. Western US trof doesn't seem as deep thru 132

Yep. Kicker seems to be aiding in moving along faster too.

NAO taking its dear old time on the icon and doesn't force the NS wave thru far enough S nor fast enough. 50/50 is there. Alas, that's enough dissecting of this model more than a week out.

So the ICON takes a really good track under us but is warm asf. Has the trail wave but look like it didn't allow the preceding front enough time/space to dampen the flow enough out ahead, ie, slower NS energy.

Narrow deathband on the fv3.

Actually I stand corrected on the 12k nam....scaled back the 'big event' for tomorrow. Surface maps looked improved, snowfall maps backed off. Assuming it will be a mood flakes kind of day

Ahhh, I see.

Well, it isn't debris from salting the roads, so what is it?

12z NAM 12k is still Namming us for tomorrow. Extended the duration and slightly increased amounts fwiw. 3k version wants nothing to do with it.

All 3 major ops are not agreeing with the means of a stronger cutter low in the GL fwiw. This is that range tho where the ops have generally done their own thing then once within 144-168 hrs have gone back towards the ens looks. Today's runs are going to be telling imho wrt seeing if we move towards one camp vs the other.

GFS is not alone btw. CMC is not a cutter look. Really morphed last 4 runs into a followup wave thing that slides under the NAO-50/50 dipole.

With that said, also don't want that main energy lagging too far behind allowing any dampening that occurred to start the return flow well out ahead of that main energy. Timing is critical.

@psuhoffman We may have found a hero to help us reverse or halt things: ChatGPT - Climate Change

So are you suggesting the more likely fail scenarios are either 1) NO followup wave with that energy burying itself into the -PNA or 2) cutting towards Pittsburgh and late redevelopment too far N? These are the only 2 fails I see associated with our friend out West. Just want to make sure I'm picking up on what you are thinking.

Next 3 runs is usually when the threats have vanished or morphed into something totally different this season (144-180 hr range). If we can get this under a week then it might be a legit threat. I still like the look up top we are getting. Just need that to have a real impact down in the states. Pretty typical late season look tbh with a boundary pushing thru establishing the cold and a followup right on it's heels with the shorter wavelengths in-between. Problem we have seen repeatedly is the followup gets pushed too far S or sheared out. Saw this with the similar pattern in Dec when the 50/50 and NAO established. Hoping this time it works and we actually get the SER to flex just the right amt and nudge thing towards our lat.

Not sure. Looks like it is morphing into a followuo wave along a late season arctic boundary situation. These overunning events can overperform and really dump. Not seeing this as a bomb low developing tbh attm.

Isn't it the flow under the pressing NAO that is trying to do a squeeze play between the dipole and the SER tho? In any event, from your keyboard to nature's ears. You're saying suppression won't be the issue, noted.

Tell us we can't know yet without actually telling us we can't know yet. But in this winter based on base state, if you know, you know.