Ralph Wiggum

Getting established, being established, or relaxing....either way it has an impact if the components are in play irregardless of developing or waning. The suppressed CMC has the same NAO-50/50 look. I think we are pretty much disagreeing on different functions of the pattern where both are a function of one another....the chicken or the egg argument. In any event it would be cool to see the SER/WAR feature actually be a saving grace for once this season

Funny to see the gfs op even more N and W tho. Again, a GFS/CMCish blend could work

Baby steps

While what you are saying is valid and true, the areas I circled are the dipole mechanisms responsible for the suppressed look. That dipole catalyst gets there by the factors that you noted. They are interconnected. But saying "that is not what's happening" is a false presumption:

Bring us home with the GFS Randy. We're waiting around the Roulette table awaiting you to spin the wheel. All chips are in...lfg!

The NAO-50/50 combo squash the system on the ICON. Alas, tis but the ICON but also signaling the fear I saw in this setup. Onto the GooFuS.

He will return for the Ides of March...my spidey senses are tingling.

Nevermind ..icon suppressed and sheared

I think I like where the ICON is headed but with the flips and flops it does, it could easily take a bad turn post 120. Looks promising tho thru that hr.

Speaking of very well-respected, anyone heard from @Bob Chill?

ICON really holding the energy back out West thru 102.

I honesty think he is the most underrated and probably most improved poster on the board....when he stays on point and isn't just spewing off analog after analog etc. When he uses his own research to develop one solid solution, he is truly on-point. I know many won't agree but iykyk

STJ pineapple express headed directly into/over an anomalously cold airmass already in place. What could possibly fail here? Don't answer that.

This^^^....not your most usual eloquently worded disco but perfect for layman's terms.

Not every one....that's an absolute statement. There were a few in Dec during the other -NAO/-PNA phase that either took good tracks but rained or ended up squashed under us due to the flow. This setup also has a 50/50 low which subsequent convergent flow *could* actually do more harm than good with a relatively flat longwave pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the country. Of course you have associate trof with the sw but overall things are moving right along. It's all a balancing act. The WAR/SER could help us here...we need some pushback given the lw flow and the dipole NAO-50/50 signal. Otherwise we get the squashed/suppressed/southern solutions. This one can work with the right timing...going to take the right mix of ingredients tho. A blend of the CMC and GFS could work.

A blend of the CMC and GFS would be fabulous. Euro was close.

I follow ya, but the h5 also isn't necessarily supportive of a cutter. And subsequently if there is no NS interaction that wave is going to slide by to the South of us...suppressed. So I could see Southern parts of your sub getting on the board while Northern sections continue to wallow in misery. Let's hope the Euro is onto something and starting to take the lead tho.

Funny, GEFS ind members are improving yet the mean is still N and W. Some really strong cutters on the inds skewing the mean.

I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway.

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

The lack of Northern stream interaction and lack of cold air is concerning even with a track like the Euro. I suppose it could happen especially at night but we are tightrope walking yet again. Interact jets and you pump heights out ahead and need a much farther S track. No interaction and rely on established cold air which means you need the slp to track farther N. Never easy.

Euro came N for the March 4 system. GEFS much improved as well. Fair amount of upside among ind members:

If the GFS vs others could meet in the middle we would be celebrating.

Not exactly. But the divergence among the camps is comical tbh.

GFS vs CMC snowfall: