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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    While there is truth that guidance trends N most of the time, that is never an absolute....especially with blocking building up top. If there was one that could reverse trends in a couple days, this is the one imho. Not a warm fuzzy feeling attm but optimistic that we wont see N ticks every single run from now thru Friday. I expect some dramatic changes in one form or another thru Wednesday at least.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    0z vs 12z Check out the hp
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Nice...0z vs 12z
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Hmmm, coastal NC weakness. Miller B-ish Eta: CAD signal now
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Stronger hp on the cmc, slightly better positioning. LP strength may mitigate that tho. Still close and not a cave to gfs imo.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Could be but at h5 it is holding that lobe back over SE Canada which may aid confluence...doesn't zip it thru like gfs
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC standing it's ground thru 120
  9. Ralph Wiggum
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS for late week is either leading the way or on an island by itself. Realistically the final answer likely lies between the GFS and Euro....which has also ticked N last 2 runs.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Big difference with the stream separation around Montana. Euro also keeps that vort near Maine helping confluence a tiny bit. Gfs zips it into the 50/50
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    On to the CMC....
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep. After 108 there was less separation between NS and the Southern vort. Went to shit after 108.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Agree with ALL of this. Doing my best to keep optimism and morale high while there is still some semblance of a chance.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is going to be diff...maybe a tick S and E at the very least. Changes with the lobe over SE Canada at 84
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON absolutely destroys us Friday. Much improved longer duration look with a battle between HP and overunning LP. If this is how we r morphing this I'm fine with that. Less amped would be better.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm not sure the icon look is horrible. It isnt that SW->NE oriented look like the gfs that's tries to cut. Has more of a look sliding W->E with cold pressing to the N. That would make for a much juicier or prolonged overunning for areas N of the boundary. Definitely isn't a strong amped look. A gfs track with weaker system crawling along could work if it can get displaced a bit S
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON going towards the GFS. Pretty significant shift tbh. Northern areas are snow tho at 120.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed. The wrfs are the weakest of all our mesos....but you can gather some general ideas from them. Verbatim? Not so much.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Amazing to see how we appear to be setting up to do the backloaded thing. Frozen tomorrow, significant frozen threat Friday for a chunk of this sub, and after the 8th the pattern is even more promising with the cold boundary established to our South. March is obviously the new January. April should be rockin at this rate
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    WRFs are colder and snowier as well:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Fv3 came in colder tomorrow night. Great trends for this one so far:
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