Ralph Wiggum

@CAPE ... I'm pretty sure we have seen this before this winter. Disturbance at LR plowing thru the SER and the op says yep, that's possible. Your thoughts (besides that its an op at range and dont waste my time)?

Hr³ is slowly backing down positive snow totals for tonight S of i78. Hope to get a dusting at least. Beware the Ides of March?

It looks like if SE PA is going to pickup any accums tonight (south of i78 at least) it would be between 8-10pm. Looks to start as rain or rain with pingers then the heavier convective band rolls thru after 8pm flipping to snow before transitioning to sleet and sleet/rain mix after 10pm ending as plain rain early Tuesday. Beggars can't be choosers....my yard spotlights will be on full lumen tonight. If we can top .25" here tonight it would be the largest snowfall of the season imby. LFG!

So 16 days away. We got this.

That SER is showing more and more, little by little each day on these spaghetti plots....I've been specifically following that feature because that has been our nemesis all year. I'm not saying one way or the other what I think just yet....just watching from a distance.

You said what I was thinking. Tho I've been suggesting we need patience and this would be a March backloaded winter since back in December. Part of me wants to take psu's stance on base state and seasonal trends and say this falls apart too as it approaches. But with psu on board for this period for like the first time all winter I will likely remain open-minded... for now.

Hr³ now has the 2" totals on positive snow depth nap over my house. Went colder again for tonight.

Wrf for tomorrow pm

Hr³ went colder again. Not accounting for any sleet has c-1 or 2" in my area. Biggest event of the season.

I noted that....it is regards to summer fisheries which is something I chart so I had that bookmarked. Thanks for noting. I posted a better graph following that post.

Here this is better I think. Again, I'm not sure we can assume based on this that we are going to be stuck in a negative pdo rut for the next 30 years.

I don't know....you could also look at this as if we've been in a negative phase overall since 2000 give or take. In the grand scheme, 90 years is a pretty small sample size wrt a decadal oscillation, or even smaller sample size as you are suggesting a tri-decadal oscillation. That would only provide roughly 3 measurement periods since 1930. note that is summer pdo I am using^^ not intentionally cherry picking I promise

Not looking for a debate, but I've done a little reading on the PDO....not a scholar on the subject by any means. I'm genuinely curious where you are seeing data suggesting we are entering a -pdo for the next 3 decades? Or am I misinterpreting what you said as these next 30 years will feature a predominent shit pac base state? I'm not following the 30 years of futility thing or what it is in reference to?

Sparse Pacific data. Cmon, I know you've read the weenie handbook before. Remember? System goes to hell 5-6 days out then trends back better at 3 day leads.

I'll be 80 years old...wonder if there's a market for wheelchair mounted sleds, tubes, or skis?

@Always in Zugzwang our van has had a couple of minor issues....hope you were all buckled up!

Him and Samwise are back in the Shire, they threw in the towel.

Can you dub this one the Swiffer Storm?

You've been preparing ppl since October tho with your essays and journal notes. Nobody is surprised.

GFS is undoubtedly the new King

5 days out and set in stone? Based on the euro? Really?

Iirc from past experience, S and E corrections tend to occur more often when developing blocking up top is either being modeled too weak or incorrectly wrt timing (too slow developing on guidance vs reality). I think this could be one of those times where S and E corrections have increased possibility. Now during Archambault events where blocking is waning or the NAO is relaxing, we tend to see the N and W corrections more frequently. Again, my thinking may be wrong but this is how I remember it from my experiences.

GEPS ticked S for 3/4....better look up top wrt vort lobe moving SE providing better confluence.

GEFS ind members actually improved a fair amount for the area. Still has it's share of op looking members. Mean snowfall also ticked up vs last 2 runs.

Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time.