Ralph Wiggum

Sswe finally doing it's thing.

Have been cynical wrt LR looks and rightfully so given what we have endured this season wrt LR guidance. However, I am beginning to like the look on the GEFS as we head to day 10-12. I know. Fantasy range. But the look is improving this time and moving up. -NAO signal, 50/50, trof South of AK, PNA ridge developing in response trying to even bridge with the NAO. This could work for March:

18z gefs trends from last 4 runs (day 10 to day 9). More of the usual...building SER as lead time diminishes, linkup attempt between NAO (which is displacing farther S last 4 runs) and new SER signal. There is separation out between the Hawaiian trof and the NW Coast trof which @CAPE noted earlier was a good thing out in the PAC. But it is not encouraging imho to see the repeated seasonal Atlantic side trends on the ens mean as we get under 10 days. Sigh.

March or April? Asking for a friend.

Read through your journals. I'm sure there is something in there about the trof developing S of Alaska that somehow fucks us.

I'm just playing devils advocate. Seeing too much KU and HECS talk. OK, I agree, synoptically it looks pretty darn good. But I'm tempering expectations. I'll ease off the cynicism. Let this one happen.

Isn't the NAO retrograding too quickly tho? I mean I know we need it to relax but this looks like it takes a one way ticket to the Aleutian ridge bridge no? Eta: taking the same steps other windows have. Keep moving the NAO west and pumping the SER and, well, you know where any storm is headed.

Ides of March Bombastic Fantastic pre St Patty's Storm of the Decade!

Is this like follow the yellow brick road? Snowing in poppy fields would be a dreamy way to round out the winter....I'm all in.

NAO continues retrograding farther W and the GOM ridge is becoming more stout and moving closer to the SER position. Two ways to see this map.

The full lat ridge NAO/GOM link that everyone says will get beat down is preventing the pattern evolution. In order to get this to work we need the energy to push thru. All season 10 day props showed hope with mirages of sw's surviving their way thru said ridging. We shall see....staying cautiously cautious for now

Just under a half inch here right around .4" for the largest event of the season. Backloaded for sure

Pretty sure we had a similar pattern in part of Dec but the pattern got overwhelmed with cold. I could be wrong tho.

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

I immediately thought of this scene from Dumb and Dumber

Can we still say "snowman" or do we have to say "crystallized frozen precipitation person"? I can't keep up.

I wonder if that S Central US ridge is going to try and link up with the ridging up top near the NAO region? That could be a fly in the ointment.

Biggest event of the year so far .3" snow/sleet. All snow now:

But....but this time is different. The angle of the NAO is telling

Only because it's 10 days away.

Hail?

Heavy sleet/snow in Warminster 35F

Rain and wet flakes mixed in Boue Bell 39F

Strangest looking map I've seen in some time

Ides of March. LFG!