I understand what you are saying, but certain model biases allows those models to go a run/streak if the patterns and similar biases set in for a period. We have seen countless times where even AFDs have mentioned such and such model verification scores have been high recently so more weight is being given to said model. Maybe my "hot hand" is sort of vague or broadbrushing or lacked the "verification scores" terminology, but there is substance behind what I said. Now have I looked at a verification chart in the past 4 weeks? I have not, so maybe I'm just bias to this Friday system where the GFS led the way.