He is a realist. He sees the pattern. He knows the implications. But as he noted before, he will only really show when there is a legit threat under 5 days give or take. Waiting patiently.
I speak for 95% of us here. We are a strange breed. When models show near misses (never understood that oxymoron btw) we try and will the storm to us pointing out little nuances in the flow that would make it work. Subsequently, when models are showing direct hits we look for anything possible on how and why it will fail. We all must be joys at parties.
Now they are going the route of the 76ers they announced...blowing the team up, rebuild, and "the process". They haven't been relevant since 2010, havent they been rebuilding since then?
All models are honking with the massive blocking pattern. Now we track and see which one works out. This would make for an epic backloaded winter...hit snow climo with 1 event.
GFS a little later. Big time loaded pattern. Has 3 threats....at least one would work out. If we can't get a biggie from an h5 KU looking pattern I don't know what would work anymore