Ralph Wiggum

This was a fairly big shift on the GEPS mean at 0z vs 12z yesterday. Still have lp indicated near the GL but the redevelopment is happening quicker and farther S due to the stronger 50/50 and subsequent confluence:

Pretty much agree with all of this. Mud (supposed to say mid but this typo was appropriate so leaving it) March takes some rare and near perfect conditions for the lowlands, especially the farther S in lat you go. With that said, the 6z gfs op made some slight improvements but not nearly enough to warrant much enthusiasm. However, the oz geps did trend better and has a stronger CAD signal with a slightly better positioned mean surface low depiction, so that is worth noting. And of course the Euro at 0z. If we were gonna pull off some sort of miracle, today's runs are where it will be. Need pretty significant changes, not sure baby steps will get us to the promised land. Interior elevations and N and W....game on.

You can see the 6z gfs already made some pretty significant changes wrt not burying energy deep in the base of the trof out in the southwest but rather rotating it NE along the trof and trying to extend/push it east.

CMC trying to setup the Ides of March storm at h5 GFS looks interesting as well. Still have a 10-day window...maybe shaving 1 or 2 days off the front of that soon.

GFS wants to try and do something after 216 but thermals are destroyed so nah.

CMC at least gives some light reacharound err wraparound love.

Not as bad yet but clearly headed that direction.

CMC is better than gfs but not sure it will get er done.

Storm is stuck under the block out West.

The changes on the gfs at 156 vs last 4 runs back to 0z are just head scratching

Starting to look like the N Plains is the place to be for the first phase of pattern change.

Congrats 4 corners?

Jesus H...gfs is going to bomb this thing in NM ffs Eta: sarcasm but it is really strong in S Cali with the vortmax

It is warranted!

GFS looks slightly better...trying to nudge things east at 96

I second Ji...I don't have the drive to do the pbp. Randy is the one. Take us home @stormtracker

ICON doesn't have the pattern. Never develops a true block. Garbage

GFS thru 66 has slightly more digging look to the energy on the WC.

ICON doesn't do the SD blizzard like gfs but pumps ser and torches the entire east. 540 line well into Canada and N ME.

ICON is whack after 144...develops the 50/50 near Bermuda before trying to wobble into position.

Wth is the euro-para? And this is for Monday?

Energy is more gefs-like on the ICON...weaker but farther N...slowly trudging east

It's not good thru 132, believe me.

ICON really pumping heights out ahead of the WC energy at 126.

First up, the ICON. You can see at 120 it is already burying the energy out West compared with 18z