Jump to content

Ralph Wiggum

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,087

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS for Tuesday with the deathband. Continues coming South past 6 runs. Actually gets flakes into extreme PA now:
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Ironically alot of that in PA is from this Tuesday's system...which as a side note everyone in the PA sub has pretty much glazed over. Could potentially be the best hit of the run...doubt it as the pattern is loaded going forward, but it could be.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS has 3 threats over the next 10 days. None are flush hits but the trends to the good are happening. Ops finally recognizing the pattern. Ides of March system still popping up...op has it as a big Interior hit this run. Now or never before we move into full spring mode.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Ides of March or bust
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny how the spring obs thread pages are progressing along faster than our winter obs thread did at any point this entire winter. There is a theme that is becoming evident and it isn't severe weather...yet anyway. Tbh, it is sorta refreshing to finally have the good looks up top following the sswe with the mjo entering a very amplified phase 8->1....trends going in our favor at this lead time rather than down the toilet for once.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS caved and has light snow entering the region by Saturday AM in lieu of a redeveloping Miller b off the Mid Atl coast.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC has trended to moving the quasi "SER" feature farther West each run. Trying to slide it near the PNA region Eta: well, it is moving that way then the vort squashes any thoughts of that
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Nobody discussing the CMC?
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM also has the deathband in SE PA on Tuesday. White rain.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    You know I'm an outta towner with ties to a different city, but I'm a fan of Lamar. Would like to see him stay put and not get shifted around. Also don't want him in the NFC East. He will be fine.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Good old fv3 starts us off with some banding snow on Tuesday: Eta: appears to be in the farther S camp along with the Canadian. Other mesos a smidge N.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Hold up....so I haven't really been following. Also apologies if this was already mentioned here. Lamar going to the Commanders? What kind of shit is this? The ultimate qb-killer organization. Say it ain't so. The guy has life left in him still. May his career RIP if true.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    And we patiently await the 12z models. Pretty decent pattern period coming up between the 10th and 20th. Seasonal history says move on, other data suggests just hanging tight. Retrograding NAO block, stj involvement, 50/50 low, MJO amplified phase 8->1, vorticity rolling underneath the block...what could go wrong?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Bro...
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    GEPS didn't waiver and then there's the eps. GFS family still seems to be playing catchup with this system.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Big ticket changes all around wrt next weekends potential. GFS trended towards the euro (which destroys part of this forum)...still an outlier (the gfs). Been over a year since we actually had guidance begin to trend favorably at this ra3nhe like we saw at 0z). Thats what happens with massive nao blocking and mjo 8-1 phase. Here is the eps borrowed from the Mid Atl forum originally borrowed from the NE forum:
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Fyp
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    The good old day 9-10 threat Yeah, this morphed into something completely different now in just under like 36 hours. Somethings gotta give during this pattern one would think. If it doesnt, @psuhoffman should just send his thesis off to the AMS and publish his book/journal.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Inverted trof over gom at 240 on cmc with a big blob of fresh hp moving into midwest. Just needed the match to light the fuse.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC just misses a phase towards the end of run with a followup. A few minor timing adjustments and boom.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC....redevelopment idea. Primary destroys thermals still and hp/CAD almost nil:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Personally don't think the primary gets that far N. No other model is even close to that. GFS is playing catchup this time around.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Undecided on whether to close it off and occlude it near MN under the block with a strung out cold fropa or redevelop off Hatteras miller b style. Flip a coin.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Definitely some intense confluence affecting it as it approached. No way guidance is handling all those pieces precisely attm.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Just an odd depiction of a redeveloping low what, like 800 miles from primary? As unclean as you would see under such a strong block. Run definitely raises an eyebrow regardless of what surface says verbatim.
×
×
  • Create New...