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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Enjoying the late start on heating bill season personally. -
That was my point there is factual data that supports your theory. I'm really vested in seeing if your area can cash in sooner than later.
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Quite contraire mi amigo....there is no joke therein. This is pretty serious stuff.
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We just need PSU to get his 1" by Dec 1 and we are gravy baby.
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There's a joke in there somewhere I think
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What 'should' historically be different this season (Nino) vs last few (Nina) these followup waves won't get shredded to smithereens every time. Have a good feeling the shred factory is not going to be our biggest problem this season. Definitely not hating the advertised longwave signals moving forward.
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-epo/+pna ftmfw....pna will almost always trump a really good Atlantic side. The look out west is of utmost importance. Nice disco gents.
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I don't see any avocados there, so this checks out.
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The old 'dont get caught up too far in the extended range as guidance is struggling within 10 days' thing.
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Yep, not even Nov 15 and the old logbook has made the appearance
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Like I said, a super eruption. @ravensrule
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If Iceland ends up with a super 'cano all bets are off.
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Several mets have 09-10 as an analog so there's that. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
That's the right attitude! -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Buckle up But in all seriousness, the week of TG looks like a nice step down to a colder regime on the ens means. Trof in East, disturbance(s) under the region, ridge in Western Canada. We take what we can get. I'd rather punt Nov for a better heart of winter tbh if I had a choice. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
If we can eek out some minor accums by Dec 5 I would be ecstatic. Seems possible this year unless the pattern completely flips on us. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
I know we had a ratter of a winter last year but have we gotten so desperate we track frost now? We have a Super Nino....go big or go home. Best shot at a big storm here since 2016 imo. If this fall longwave pattern is any indication of what's to come, we are going to be active early and often. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
That would be a March like rain to heavy thump situation on the GFS. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Make that 3 -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
2 GFS runs in a row with accumulating snow for SE PA before Nov 11 and this sub is crickets. Sheesh. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
This year is very different re: longwave pattern over NAmerica. It should be worth the wait based on what I am seeing thus far. -
Howdy. Well, I made it a point to make at least 1 post each season this year, so yeah
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Nice day out there. Breezy and misting.
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Last big rains (6+ weeks ago?) decided to wash and ceramic coat the truck following. Been waiting to see how good this coating is I put on and finally got to see the beading. Ash and pollen rinsed right off. Welcome rains for sure.
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Maybe it's something local or someone burning leaves but smelling wildfire smoke here again in Ivyland. Looks like some cells off to our SW. Junk and stuff headed this way.