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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Can someone please start a thread?
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    The trof N of the Hawaiian Islands is a nice feature that had been lacking in recent years. Hints of an Aleutian low showing up.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Mild Dec? I'm sorry, I'm not really seeing it. Any 'warmth' looks muted and transient at best thru 1st half of Dec. Cold enough for snow? Perhaps we sneak our way into something early, but we are still really premature in the season and outside of good climo for many. Becoming increasingly confident of a very active pattern coming and if these arctic intrusions are foreshadowing what's to come could be a fun ride.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    At work in Telford....squall
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Flurries. 32F
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Yes! Even the 'big December warmup' that is common among Nino analogs looks muted at best. We should have a fair amount of chances this winter.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Mesos hinting at some scattered snow squalls tomorrow. Going to feel wintry for sure with highs in the mid 30s and blustery. Wednesday continued cold with same highs.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    There have been years we waited until Feb and still exceeded avg snowfall. I don't think anyone is backpeddaling or canceling...well, maybe Ji. I was simply noting that based on some analogs we are going to have to be patient and shouldn't be getting hopes up for wall to wall snow events from Dec 1-April. Probably setting up for a letdown if ppl are expecting that. We can hope of course but should temper expectations. Many red taggers echo this and have suggested their analog years were mostly backloaded, so there's that.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Definitely going to require alot of patience. Could strike out a few times and incur meltdowns of epic proportions. May be one of those seasons we wait til Jan into Feb which could fit alot of the backloaded analog seasons. Hopefully we don't wait that long. The panic room will be packed if that's the case.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm quite sure someone will find something. But yeah, about as good as we could hope for early Dec. No issues here.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Last year might have been too much of a good thing. I remember that mega NAO block. The -SD that kept appearing on the ens means didn't have 'reds in the right spots' ....we had magenta blob all across the NAO region. Most of the forum thought we couldn't fail with those looks up top. All that yielded was an avocado +SD PV forced under that block which overwhelmed the pattern. The -PNA didn't help either.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Does PSU meet the 1" snowfall criteria there? Can't quite read it
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    PAC>ATL.....but we do finally have some PAC help early.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    And we've also had our fair share of epic Atlantic looks and even EPO help in recent years with zilch to show for it due mostly to a muted or raging -PNA. A huge part of our run of poor luck is the lack of a good PNA in the the PAC. So far this early in the season we are seeing signals of a decent PAC side which we definitely could use. So the LR outlooks have that going on which could be the game changer this winter.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Not hating the GEFS trend for the Dec 5-7 period. WB NAO, increasing heights PNA region, and strong vorticity moving E out of the Rockies and maybe underneath the region.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, we all know digital snow doesn't amount to jack squat. But this season already has a vastly different look wrt the longwave pattern and how systems are reacting along the coastline than the past several. Weeklies and lr ens all pointing to a very favorable look towards mid-Dec fwiw. Can't ask for more before mid Dec than that. Better than a blinds-shutter look for sure.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Nice wintry event popping up on the 12z gfs in the LR (Dec 5).
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Happy Thanksgiving to all my Southern friends here!
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks exactly where last year left off (SW trof, flat ser, textook nao blocking) . Maybe hangover Nina effect?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Not a single person talking about the return of the Dec 5 snow on the 12z gfs for parts of the region? Funny to see digital snow on that date...maybe a good omen for winter even if a 384hr prog doesnt verify.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Regardless I've barely needed to use it which is nice.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Just some mixed signals on the guaranteed cold availability for PSUs first 1" of snow. Other than that, ssdd...Ji canceled winter and Chuck is talking oscillation indices.
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