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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Ninja'd lol
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Crazy, past couple years we hunt unicorn patterns on the weeklies and lr ens that had epic looks and they didn't materialize. This year the same products show meh and they probably verify. Never seems to work the other way for the better.
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Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread.
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Which is usually what we deal with during Ninos. Nino patterns aren't traditionally arctic bitter vodka cold. Take Jan 2016 for example....yes it was seasonal leading in but that storm we essentially sandwiched in between crud. It was in the 50s here the next day. I made a comment about 'windows' but that is real....we aren't going to deal with wall to wall cold and well-times storms. Thus is the Nino majority of the time.
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Gotta start somewhere so we take. Hope the pac retract holds as we move closer.
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Still think we r struggling with a cold air source with this jet configuration. The central Canada ridge you noted is actually not helping matters much.
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I noticed that too with the Aleutian low being progged to move into good position then getting adjusted into the GOA on the ens means. What's causing this besides energy feeding in and causing deepening/wobble? PAC jet mostly responsible?
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It would be a good study to see how recent-year Nino jet extension tendencies compare to similar enso episodes from past climatology. Ie, are recent Ninos more persistent and stronger with the extension than the past? Are we seeing less of a likelihood to see pac jet retraction in a Nino due to certain climate conditions that may have changed? Genuinely curious.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
You got 3" in Doylestown? I'm going off your location. -
I think my point was that's where we r at 2 weeks out and that's our best look....but we can still sneak something in during small windows and to hang in as just after this things look to improve markedly.
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If we are hunting good patterns on the super LR ens then the GEPS is your model for the day. The CFS weeklies are really nice late Dec into prime climo as well. Dec isn't a snow month right? But it just stopped snowing today for many and I've seen my 5th flakes of the season up here already so these are all good signs moving ahead.
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I wouldn't write Dec off completely. I'm not seeing any wall to wall torch. The 'sustained' look isn't the greatest but there appear to be some windows of opportunity peppered into this month. This might be one of those seasons we generally have a not so great pattern then when the transient good patterns move thru we score. Really have little doubt as we enter prime climo that we cash in several times. Hang in.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Biggest event of the season right now. .3" of the white stuff and still snowing at a good rate. Same, no accum on roads but mulch and car topper. -
Also been on hold for what seems like days now. Y'all have staffing issues. I don't even remember what the heck I was calling to panic about now ffs. Going back outside to Jebwalk in this snow.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Puking fatties at the moment. Nice deathband working thru. 33F -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Good morning sleeping beauty -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
5th time we've seen flakes and not even mid Dec yet. Was 62F just 12 hrs ago. Amazing. -
Winter is saved!
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We had smiley face H5 anom maps last year and we see how that worked. Just sayin.
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Y'all twisted beer freaks...
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
We need a redux of Valentines Day 1899! -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Ironically isn't this the window where ppl were saying we would torch in early Dec? Yet this would be the 3rd time already (4th total) in Dec we see flakes. Trend thus far is it wants to snow. Can't wait to see where we're at 3 or 4 weeks from now. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
3k says a few hours of snow tv monday morning -
Nice epo ridge building after day 10 on the gefs as that pac jet extension works its magic: