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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS isn't bad at all. Keep expectations in-check....that's all. And don't be angry if the epic eps look doesn't play out verbatim. Sheeeesh.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    I got the Jags +3.5 tonight too btw. You're welcome.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    My exact thoughts when I looked at the eps especially. Textbook what we would want to see without major cold around to tap into. Hopefully this week's 2 big lw systems (today/tomorrow and then the one offshore) can rob the atmosphere of some energy for the wrapped up stuff for a little bit.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    0z GEPS was also very nice for the same period. I agree with @WxUSAFand @Bob Chill respectively....either a snow to rain situation if a tighter storm or we cash in with a pos/neutral tilt trof and wave sliding across ala the EPS. Its a nice window to wind out the year and ring in the new.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Some guidance still hinting at that discrete marginal opportunity on Dec 23 I mentioned a couple of days ago. Chances are low, maybe we get some white rain or mood flakes before the holiday...that would be a win for me in a Nino December. Looking farther ahead, big time pattern changes happening last week of the month. Atlantic side improving and -epo ridge establishing itself on the PAC side to help with a cold air source finally. Stj very active and undecutting a flat PNA ridge. Looks are much improved headed into late month. Window for a system still showing around the 28-30th as mentioned before.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    You would think being around as long as I have I would read the legend on these maps before drooling. I'm rushing these looks faster than guidance rushes pattern changes these days.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Yepper....im headed to the beer distributor. Oh, you meant wrt the weather. Yeah, that too.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    ^^THAT is the look I want to see on the PAC side. -epo, split flow out west, stj undercutting a neutral/weak +pna. Roll that forward 3-6 days and BANG!
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    That little discrete wave has been showing up for a few days. Maybe some mood flakes +.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    You have to understand...that is basically Nino in a nutshell. Rarely is there sustained cold. Exceptions? Yes. I made a note of this the other day...during alot of Ninos we seem to get brief windows of opportunity sandwiched between seasonal/AN stuff. Siberia being cut off is pretty common tbh.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    When those features present themselves the stj probably shuts off. Hopefully not, but that's Murphys Law for our region. I'll see myself out now....
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Thing I've learned over the past several seasons....a good PAC can overcome a meh Atlantic. And more often than not a good Atl with a crud PAC does us no good. There are exceptions but I almost always look to the PAC side first before seeing what the Atl is doing.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    93 was a triple phase. Polar jet doesn't phase in until way too late. Close but no cigar this time.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Finally....a very discrete wave showing up in the flow around the 23rd. Weak and to our S for now but could provide some flakes. Been showing up on a few runs now anyway. Larger window opening up on the ens the last week of Dec as the PAC side amplifies with a transient +PNA and -EPO ridge and a vigorous shortwave slides across the SE. Op gfs hinting at something also.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Great! The winky mcwinkerson pattern. That's usually a decent performer iirc.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Ens means and weeklies look active with the stj but sorta displaced south with the storm track following the southern route then off the coast. N stream to our N mostly aside for one brief stretch. Not sure I agree but that's what the LR stuff is showing attm. Here's a sample first week January. Beautiful +NAO, N stream along Canadian border, stj displaced S. PAC changes for the good after this but still gonna take a bit before we get cold air sources re-established let alone directed into the States. And I thought 'patience' was our buzz phrase LAST year. We will get there eventually this season.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    My positives to a +NAO Nino period... -lower than normal heating bills -not being up til 3am tracking wintry weather -no need to spend time bundling in layers before going outside -periodic opening of windows for fresh air -no constant static electricity every time I touch something -dinners outside on the deck -fishing
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    My daffodils are coming along nicely
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep I eta to my post right after. Just an odd look.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Wth is the 6z gfs doing on Christmas eve? big old retrograding Atlantic low.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    So we just needed PSU to come in and voice a plethora of 'concerns' he is seeing in the Long Range in order to get the LR to cooperate in our favor? Noted.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Boxing Day?
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