Ralph Wiggum

I too am in the minority. Give me any frozen and I am happy. Heck, even a good sleet storm or a fzra event. I think it's the 'not the norm' with these things that fuels my passion for the hobby.

If we are being realistic, this period has been suggesting more of a southern track for our stj energies. TPV positioning near Baffin downstream of the EPO ridge will help direct the cold, but this may be a real test of our Nino. In the recent Nina episodes, these similar looks yielded an either suppressed track or 'shred factory' (I think that became the catch phrase iirc) that sheared our southern storms. In any event, if I were a betting man, my money leans towards South of 40 (at the very least) being favored for something. Couple other questions tho....are these looks even correct and will they hold for this period? And then what happens when it (epo ridge/tpv position and cold pressing flow underneath) relaxes? Do we go over to midwest lows/cutters? Guess we wait and see.

Realizing it wasn't a response to Panic per se bit still strange to see a @Bob Chill post in the panic room.

Gotta agree with PSU here...if you're big dog hunting then we are waiting for a while. The tpv setting up (ens means) over Baffin Bay downstream of the epo ridge...all that spells are fast moving systems embedded in the flow without something in the Atlantic to halt the progression. Good for some overunning chances if you like those relative quick hitters but there really isn't anything I'm seeing to slow things down too much. Which might be a blessing in disguise until the cold air source gets established more. Tight wound up systems won't do us any good for now as has been discussed ad neaseum already.

Nice tpv setting up in the west nao slot on the ens means.

Very 1997ish so far.

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

I saw an enso super extended product that has a sustained Nina mid 2024 thru 2027...so we could be in serious trouble if we don't cash in during this Nino.

Happy Winter Solstice! Longer days from here til June. @ChescoWxhow many weeks til spring training??

@stormtracker...we need you

That split flow with vorts sliding under the epo!!!....need the homer simpson drool pic!!

Bro....chill

Shit, I dunno about warming my heart but that look really warms my loins!!

Droolworthy setup. Nice pattern developing at least towards end of Dec early Jan.

Love the h5 smiley face pattern. Keeps weenies positive and hopeful.

Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious.

Ji is simping these days. His rizz game ain't what it once was.

Now you're talkin!!!

Signal still there for some type of storm Dec 27-Jan 1. Good luck trying to figure it out before Monday. Posting the GFS and Euro 500mb charts to show the complexity of the situation. Vorts spinning and diving all over the country each interaction having a different influence in how the storm plays out. I know it's been said already there isn't a ton of cold to work with prior as this seems to trigger the pattern changes we are seeing in the LR. And others also noted the storms at the start of a pattern change usually aren't 'the one'. Still think this bears close watching as a dynamic event can yield interesting results. Does anyone know our track record wrt 'complicated'?

Word of caution...don't use an ens means to base temps for precip types verbatim. One or 2 mega warm members can skew that severely.

Looks....amazing. We will have flush hits in Jan if those looks verify. Of this I have little doubt. I have nothing to add to @CAPE analysis he covered all bases.

Forcing should line up to match enso and pdo phase as well....probably why we are seeing better placement of the Aleutian low. MJO headed the right way to match. Things are falling into place rather nicely going forward.

Yep,cost me the last leg of my parlay. Luckily that was gravy on the day going in to the SNF game. Would have been nice tho.

Believe it or not I enjoy the Ravens. But I am with you on this 100%