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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    I agree with this. Guidance will adjust to thermals as storm times approach. Happens both ways....we've looked at LR programs and said " somehow the gfs snows with that look, we take". Then it rains and we bash the model. I've seen it show bl too warm and pop a snow event closer to game time. Not saying psu debate isn't valid but there are 2 sides/possibilities abd we've seen both at times.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    I do say, the catalyst behind any of these legit threats seem to be a ns system (clipper?) That drags the boundary under our area. So you are o to something in that regard.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    P15 and most of this sub and my home sub party like it's 1999....or 1996
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    That was so close at h5, so close. GFS roulette Randy....you live to see another run.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    There are still 3 legit threats popping up first 10 days of January. Dont tell Albedoman...he already punted thru the 22nd.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Merry Christmas!
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    You and me both my fellow alum
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Merry Christmas to all my friends to the South. And Merry 12z gfs!
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Damn, St Bernardus clouding my reading. I first read your last sentence as "Now I am slightly aroused".
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    We simply just can't know
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Someone was talking last night here about how you can't just look at an h5 map blues and reds and assume what the relative weather is going to be. Case in point wrt 6z gfs....looked at h5 and 500v (almost always look here first) and assumed a relative quiet run post Jan 4. However, one of the better fantasy threat systems of the lr shows up on the surface maps after the 6th especially wrt this subforum.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    My tip would have been to not eat yellow snow....but then again it doesn't snow anymore so that wouldn't have been a valid tip.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, the Jan 1 threat might be too early BUT all ens are honking strong for Jan 5-7. Then a followup threat possible. But that window I noted is starting to gain traction across guidance.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Epic -nao.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Your punt thru Jan 22 may very well end up being right but for all the wrong reasons...so who knows. There are 3 threats I noted showing up the first 10 days of Jan. Yes, only threats....we need verification to mean a damn thing. Thereafter there are strengthening signals the NAO goes neg which is likely the final ingredient to get thing really cranking for us. Don't sleep on the 1st half of January tho.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm not doubting your 40+ years of expertise. I'm doubting your methods for punting thru week 3 of January. Not sure how reliable snowcover in Greenbay is in forecasting the LR. Gfs and Euro are each starting to light up with threats btw.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    3 distinct threats on the ops and ensembles between Jan 1 and Jan 10 with one of the best model runs I've seen in years and you punted until after MLK day? Cmon old head.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro has the Jan 1 system....more progressive look headed off the SE coast. CMC is flat and disheveled.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Probably the best look we've seen yet for the Jan 1 window. Still has some adjustments to make if we want it to work but that's a look:
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Hmm, went from happy smiley face H5 maps to confused or disinterested emoji face.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    A couple Ens members have legit hits with several members having snow TV at least.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    I saw that...BL torched. You would still think flakes somewhere in E PA even if white rain. Thicknesses are like 526 ffs.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    If that run were extended it would have been a pants tent sorta thing thru the 2nd week of Jan. That's a more than serviceable pattern. Waiting on the ens means.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Only an op but mirrors my thoughts:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Just posted in my home sub. I mean, I know the reason for lack of white being the BL as you also noted....but sucks to see such a good track and another wasted opportunity. We'll get there....eventually. We will.
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