I don't have a good feel about next week if I'm being totally honest and not the usual wiggum playing devils advocate sorta thing. We've been teased with the eps mega snow mean TWICE this season already, and both times, the mid Atlantic took the brunt and we got advisory type stuff.
We are in a Nina. And so far climo has played out with Delaware and South Jersey taking the bulk of the storms.
Why would this be different? Seriously, change my mind that this is going to morph into even a low-end MECS for SE PA? I just am getting bad vibes from the minute the GFS mirrored March 2001 last night. Prove me wrong.
Gotta set your expectations based on Nina climo and seasonal trends. With that said, you and I need to keep our expectations low....very low. I am serious when I say that. This is a Mid Atlantic winter and this one is eyeing them up once again.
Nina climo ftmfw. My parents are retired in Cape May. I told them years ago ninas generally favor them vs my area.
So when I told them in Oct we may be going into a weak Nina they were look "shit, that means snow down here this winter". Hasnt disappointed yet.
In layman's terms, that area of blues is about to push the storm way off the coast in a hurry on this POS. Those blues aren't tilted the right way to allow a westward pull to the surface low.
As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow.
Euro a full-on blizzard. GFS not a flake N of the turnpike, CMC in-between.
Gonna be a long week. I want to buy the euro so bad, but a big widespread storm in a Nina, while possible, is extremely rare.
We track.
Philly to Boston sees little more than flurries and a period of light snow showers....a true Mid Atlantic special. Meanwhile, the Euro is a KU from DC to Boston.
Gentlemen, choose your side.