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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Seems fitting if we miss to South on the first one then miss late on the Miller B development with the second. I'll weenie tag myself and see my own way out now, ty
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    While shorter range it is still ran off of its parent global initialization parameters. I dont consider it a true meso model.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Go with the mesos at this range
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty much as expected all the meso models are initializing better and seeing the bump N as we get closer. NAM 3k, RAP, HRRR, SREFs.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Snow has tapered here and .5" in Ivyland for the total
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny with that piece of guidance....was the farthest North a few days ago and now the farthest South.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Just a side note....those totals out in the midwest are crazy. This thing is juicing up as it gets closer.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm not sure it's the fronto forcing that lifted north or if it is the effects from this new coastal development. Shame it can't stall out under the block or crawl at least
  9. Ralph Wiggum
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gfs delivers the goods. Seeing a different evolution to the system now with a quasi phase and coastal redevelopment. Interesting changes in regards to the confluence allowing some room for the system to breathe and not shear.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    "It's powdered sugar....its delicious" -Farva
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Closing in on a half inch in Ivyland. Snow has gone from moderate to light now.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Much better.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Snow has really picked up here moderately in Ivyland and is accumulating on the deck, car top, gravel drive. Temp down to 34F
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Methinks we are going to like the NAM
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Flakes are flying in Ivyland. 35F
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like she's gonna trend N. Lobe over Maine was way overmodeled
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    She's coming North.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Interesting to see this band of snow squalls verify much farther N than progged. A few folks mentioned this system will set the path for the 1/6 system to travel. I wonder if the confluence has been overmodeled and we shouldn't be surprised to see the Monday system jump N?
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Let me know what the gefs say and I'll consider tracking
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    And this is precisely why nobody should claim victory or failure too prematurely. This is a rather delicate setup and it will not take much at all to turn this into a pleasant surprise for some.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    I just deferred to my wife and she confirmed adamantly that she too would be thrilled getting at least 3 inches. I really hope she was talking weather...pretty sure
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah that's a notable jump....maybe the NAM scores a win?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Also have to wait for the actual system to develop near Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Usually a crapshoot until the main player is actually on the map. We've seen some significant swings historically in these situations. Jan 96 was the biggest where 48bhrs before the system finally came together then guidance bumped the heaviest banding N 100 miles. It happens. Eta: I am not comparing this system to Jan 96 just using that banding shift as an example
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    We all still get accumulating snow. And that's the odd part about popping into some other subforums South of us...almost everyone will see accumulating snow but people are in some sort of panic. Guess ppl are banking on the heaviest banding. That's always the bonus jackpot. But just adding onto seasonal totals is a win in my book. Take what you can get and never be disappointed with accumulating snow.
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