Ralph Wiggum

Ninjad I think my comments were misconstrued here. I am saying the same darn thing lol. Instead of the rush to bring this change that last 3 days of runs were doing, we are back to our original al schedule around mid month. So technically, we unkicked the can (rushing things) and kicked it back. As you were.

I think guidance was rushing the change and we are back to where we were a week ago. Looking more towards the middle of the month. We got too excited seeing it showing sooner than originally forecast. CAPE is on some kick a out me and the WAR but that feature was our friend in 2016 and was a friend 3 weeks ago right before the pattern flipped and we got our 10 days of winter. That WAR is a natural.progression on this pattern evolution. It's not a phobia lol. We will get there and we will haveanour stretch of winter. But in reality, should we expect 5 straight weeks of a wi ter via a locked in pattern or should we temper our expectations and hope for another 7-10 day stretch in there with a possible big storm? I think this goes both ways....ppl set themselves up for so.e fantasy extending KU pattern locking in for 6 weeks. We all know that is super rare. Could it happen? Maybe. But we should he balanced in our thoughts and realistic too.

? I don't want to debate. I'm not here to 'ruin your vibe' as you state either. I want the epic pattern as much as anyone. But why should we cherry pick? I'm optimistic when it is deemed a good road where we are headed and pessimistic when the data appears to have taken a step back. This is a step back. Again, I didn't say winter cancel. It might just be a small delay. We don't know yet. But truth is, we dojt want to delay too much. Maybe we just are rushing things and the change is closer to the 15th, not the 12th. I hope that's the case.

Here are the 3 major ens around Feb 10 just priot to where the weeklies were showing our large scale pattern change (around the 11th/12th). All 3 are basically lock step with one another. The trof in the SE is slower to move out and stronger. Haven't that delay in timing and the strength, it allows heights to rise along the SE. Now maybe this is just a delay, but there's no sense glazing over the data staring at us. The look degraded overnight and this isn't a good trend we want to see right now:

As I sort of expected but refrained from posting til now for fear of being run off the board and ruining the good vibes...the weeklies and monthly data may have been teasing us with the super epic textbook can't possibly fail looks. This data generally is heavily weighted using past analogs/climatology averages, so it's not surprising to see those forecasts focused heavily on an Aleutian low on roids and blocking at HL. That puts all the blues and reds in the right spots. But as things move closer in time and the ensembles get in range that are weighted more with current data, the smoothed looks decay and more accurate forecasting results. Anyway, not liking the trof burying itself in the SW and the SER pumping. Saw this already in Dec and it kicked the can til 2nd week Jan. If we kick the can now same way, we are into March. Let's hope the models are belching and come back where they were 48 hrs ago.

Overnight models runs ops and ens were a trainwreek. Tough time of the season to potentially be kicking the can. But at least we have the Ravens today!

Don't need an expert to state what you just said. You nailed it. Trof buries itself essentially in the SW and the height rise in the SE eventually forming a WAR that bridges the SE Canada Ridge and the SER. Has happened a few times already this season. Wouldn't bridge jump tho. Maybe just a small delay...we just can't know yet.

GFS op has really been trying to bury that trof in the SW the past few runs and now trending towards pumping a SER in response after the 5th. Think its best to use the ens for now.

Overall look is smoothed but leans suppression. Not complaining I would much rather see this as we enter mid feb-march than a pig SER.

An inch of snow per day avg here over the next 35 days...sign me up!

I dare not post it in some of the other subs, but in recent years we have seen our share of epic patterns that just haven't produced though they clearly should have. It will be interesting to see if we go thru another stretch where things slip thru the cracks and get away from us in what used to be a pattern that historically 20 years ago would easily produce. If we can't score a warning criteria storm during this stretch, then the elephant in the room is going to get some very dirty looks from me.

Feb 5 looking interesting on the ensembles. Large S Central Canada ridge with a wave undercutting it. Big ull spinning over coastal Maine. Cold air available. Ops are meh. Then the ens and weeklies go bonkers after the 10th thru mid March. Buckle up.

Flies, lady bugs, daffodils budding, and 2 voles today.

GFS was an utter Trainwreck from start to finish. Thankfully just the op.

I was going to mention That date when I saw the 0z Euro and what it was doing with the wave break over the Northeast. Very similar in that regard.

Headed to the brewery to stock up for HH. Probably gonna need it.

Too much of a good thing. Hopefully our epic 4 week stretch doesn't have the same theme.

Truth. And until then, we just can't know.

El Nino taking a deep breath currently....but he's getting ready to exhale. Buckle up.

Imagine a Feb 5 HECS during our "lull" before the ens/weeklies epic pattern even starts out towards the 12th of Feb?

Aleet aleet. Now we get to read how the Euro is infallible and how he knew all along blah blah until it's actually wrong of course.

That shit looks complicated....very complicated. I guess there's a lower probability chance. But how well do we do complicated 'round these here parts?

That should slide E under the ridge no?

Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'? I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology.

^^^caveats apply to this of course....the ens and weeklies...are they right? And second, if we do get a good pattern, does that mean we automatically cash-in? There's a ton of chatter in a few other subs about HECS and KU correlating with the upcoming advertised pattern. While I agree this is the look to roll the dice with, I strongly recommend tempering expectations. No sense just assuming best case case scenario then being let down. Too many epic patterns come and go with little to no fanfare. Keep things in check. If the extended looks hold for another week or so, then we buckle up for the ride.