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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah! That PNA
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Jan 4th is a thread the needle but an important system that strengthens NAO blocking, sets up a quasi 50/50, and boosts confluence as waves press east under and over the pna via a split flow. Jan 6-10 is the real period to watch.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Mentioned it late last week I think the 4th system is the catalyst for a followup system around this time. Get the Jan 4 system to the 50/50 area, setup some decent confluence, get the ridging in the NAO domain in a favorable spot, and then game on. That's my feel on this whole progression anyway....4th system might be rushing it.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Imagine that....snowpack followed by the deep freeze. This evolution makes sense wrt the progression.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is loading up....good pattern showing on ops now as well. Buckle up.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Merry Christmas!
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Merry Christmas!
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    My bad, uploaded the wrong one i had saved.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Here's the H5 of the surface map posted above. Ive seen worse maps. Grain of salt....an AI op a ways out there.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    That's an odd map. Typical of AI tbh. Wrapped up low in Pittsburgh with the 850 line into NC?
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Was just going to post this. Nice run of the gefs. Even the op at 18z was active start to finish. That setup at the end of the op (total fantasy op range, we know) was loading up with a triple phaser....probably would cut but point is there are numerous possibilities from minor to major.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Even if it proves to be a decent winter, there are always points therein where we need patience. Pattern could be ripe as we've seen before but we don't get hit until it relaxes. Good vibes this year tho...we got this.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    A little more separation between those waves would do a world of good. Doesn't look like it would take much tbh.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro op, euro ai, fast euro, or the beta euro?
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Buckle up folks....January looks promising.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Sounds like a plan. See ya in an hour.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Light snow started at my work in Telford. 25f
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Who's to say how long we hold on to the favorable pac side? That decides to throw a wrench and its a whole other ballgame.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    I mean, that linkage has been fairly common in recent Ninas. To say that scenario wasn't/isnt in the back of many of our minds that have been here a while and tracking global h5 tendencies would be fibbing, because that's one of the very few ways we would fail with those high lat looks. I'm with psu, no towel throwing, just fact spitting.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    5ºF last night in Ivyland. Light snow for many tomorrow morning. Setting expectations at a fresh dusting here. Extreme parts of SE PA and N DE could get hazardous with mixed precip falling on ground that has been solidly frozen now for days. Almost has that 1994 feel with the deep cold this early in the season. I really hope NOT to get a redux of that winter as we head into Jan-Feb.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    I don't have the fancy pay maps (my extra $ goes towards those fancy craft beers) but on TT the 6z gefs is better this time period. 3rd-4th storm the euro op had as a fantasy sets the stage for this followup wave around the 7th give or take. We'll see
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    It is encouraging that the looks on the ens have not degraded and have even shown improvements. Moving up in time as well instead of the usual can-kicking. High lats are a thing of beauty, even 'mint' as some have called it.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Moved over to a holiday beer....Hardywood Gingerbread Stout. A milk stout that tastes like your drinking a liquid gingerbread cookie. Surprisingly good if you like, well, gingerbread cookies.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS are much better
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Sipping on another tasty American Imperial Stout. This time we have Weyerbacher's Sunday Morning Stout. Another BIG beer at almost 13% abv. Super tasty to sip on tho with these single digit temps on the way overnight.
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