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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Dafuq? Baja energy retrograding under the closed PNA ridge? Dont see that on the regular
  2. I don't think we need to wait for the block to break down to get 'anything' but if we are expecting a MECS+ from RIC to BOS then yeah, probably. We should have chances tho regardless for some (relatively) smaller events.
  3. Isn't it crazy that this has been our biggest issue in recent years? We can't get a balanced favorable telleconnection(s) anymore...it has to be off the charts.
  4. It's differences in wave timing and separation. Chance of 2 storms that hit that same areas in the 1/6-1/10 arent great, just mho. What the ensembles are showing as 2 diff storms are actually: an earlier storm around the 6-7th with the followup being shunted s and e behind the 500mb flow out of the NW...or slower shortwave that has more time to dig as the NAO ridge retrogrades to Davis Strait and creates a euro-type situation centered around the 9th...thus is appears on the smoothed ens means as 2 different back to back storms when in reality they are unclear exactly which of the 2 waves to develop. I mean, my take could be 100% wrong....Feb 2010 happened. Not sure we should be rooting for 1 over the other. We likely get a shot at a bigger storm later as the pattern relaxes/reloads...at least that's how these telleconnections have worked in the past.
  5. If you are banking on a HECS level event, then probably. Realistically could have 1 or 2 secs during this period then maybe the reality is our biggest storm happens when the pattern breaks down. At least that's 'normally' how it plays out.
  6. Jan 6 has shown thumper/cutter for days why the sudden surprise?
  7. Euro is a KU textbook storm between 1/7-1/10...2.5 feet Philly proper lol.
  8. CMC would have probably been a nice system with that kicker post 240. Just timing diffs and deciding which sw to phase between guidance families. Gonna be a fun couple of weeks.
  9. CMC wanted to do something but kicker on the heels of the shortwave kept it from amplifying and kept it S and E
  10. Did that earlier. Ran a cycle of seafoam thru to clean the gunk out of the carb
  11. Flirting with 'folks' territory if we can get this under 6 days
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