Ralph Wiggum

AI guidance im told have good verification scores at this range. This is right now at day 6 considered their wheelhouse. I am still concerned about suppression in this pattern but having some reliable guidance continue to move North makes me feel a little bit better. I will say im my experience, 90% or more of the time, these high pressures or extreme cold tend to be overdone and things in general come North as we approach game time. This may be the 1 out of the 10 times though...so Im playing it cautious wrt my expectations.

Ensembles are North and the AI models are way North. AIFS is a massive hit here and the AIGFS is a crippling ice storm respectively:

Are we looking at the same cmc? Because I see an arctic fropa

G-nite.

Tasty beer from a good local brewery 20 mins from my home. Cheers!

Thats funny, my wife says the same thing to me every now and again.

Finally pulling away. Looks like 4" on the nose for today. The last hour was the heaviest of the day close to 1"/hr rates. Very light pixie dust now. 27F. Now we turn our eyes to the late week threat. Eta: 4" yesterday + 4" today for an 8" snowfall weekend brings Ivyland to 19.9" for the season.

Typo'd earlier...now up to 3.25" on the day. Still coming down. Snowman inflatable caved under the weight of the snow....hes down.

Is this a new release from OH? Haven't seen this up here.

Respect to your avatar sir!

For none of the areas you mentioned

I have that in the cellar too. Im on vaca starting 2pm today, so I will bust that out for an ultra happy, happy hour this week

My only knock on this one, you can taste the alcohol. I mean, at 12% guess it gets kind of hard to mask. But I dont mind it. Flavor is good. This one is 2 years aged in the cellar. When I first had it, it was mega sweet. Rounded out nicely with some aging.

Its like time traveling back to my youth. I will be disappointed if we get another good pattern (Jan 24-Feb 3ish) that doesnt produce. But thus far we have had a solid season. Chances are, we arent done yet.

Coming down at a pretty good clip right now. Temp hovering around freezing. Bristol Road caved again. Rough guess 3/4"/hr rate.

I knew one of you guys said it....thats all yours. Love the name! I like the Mountain Dew too

I thought I saw that too but I was like this doesnt seem a very dynamic situation upstairs. Maybe it is. Nice 2.5" so far today. Its like the jelly of the month club...this is the gift that just keeps on giving. Will be approaching 20" on the season by end of the night. Winter of yore!

Started with this for HH. Kinda strong asf. Imma keep going, 3 'pounders' left. Not sure what shape I will be for 0z

I lol'd

Op is a mess....dives that 1052 hp all the way to Georgia. Sets up a return flow out of central America as it propagates to the Bahamas. That would be not good. Ensembles the way to go. Im even skeptical of the Allen Iverson models tbh. Going with what we know wrt forecasting at this range.

Op is cold asf, thats for sure. Too much of a good thing. No matter what, if this solution verifies, the cold is goong to relax at some point and that ull is going to lumber eastward. Delayed but not denied friends. Eta: i dont buy this op run fwiw

Time that Baja low right with the western extension of the pv dropping south in response to ridging up top and KABOOM! We are not too far off. Wtf is that baja low gonna do?

That Baja Blast upper low is a BIG piece of this. Does it sit and eject waves? Does it come across as one big bowling ball? We already know almost assuredly that we are getting a cold arctic high coming South.

Im not the only one in this house that enjoys sitting at the window watching the snow falling gently apparently

The Cooks ball was a catch. Caught, controlled, and knee down. It was rigged 100%