Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo: Ninja'd by @Ji
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Very different look
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GEFS is move SE for next weekend. Not there yet but better ridging out W and a flatter SE ridge.
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Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense
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This run, sure. But like Chill said the confluence is transient. Wont take much change in the fast ns flow to either screw things up horribly or make for a good storm. Based on the pattern we are moving out of I favor the crud scenario unfolding but I think this sets us up for down the road much better irt overall longwave pattern.
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Gfs likely too fast with the change....probably the follow up system that will bring smiles all around Jan 20-24 range. Eta: but of course the GFS op is trying to overwhelm the pattern with cold so we play the patiently waiting game for now and see how the NS flow evolves
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Euro has had several situations (at least 3 imby/region) where it had measurable snow 84 hours out then caved to the virtually snowless GFS. I honestly expected more digital fantasy snowstorms on the FV3/GFS this year. It is staying in its lane so far for the most part.
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This isnt a bad look. 50/50, ridging nosing into GL, elongated/splitting PV, ridging S Central Canada near HB and nosing SE, neutral PNA, ull or vort pass near region.
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EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There is your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early but EPS wasnt bad.
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CFS weeklies were hinting at that. Had the crud pattern this week transitioning to near normal temps above normal precip then finally to cold/dry and eventually colder/drier first week or so of Feb.
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12z GEFS is trending favorably towards a -AO towards the end of the run. Has been hinting at this signal for several runs now.
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Getting closer to reaching 8/1 maybe with some high amplitude.
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Saw that. The GEFS took 2 steps back irt the Atl from 18z. Now shows a ridge at the 50/50 and a trof over the NAO region. Has the EPO ridge and the neutral AO you mentioned. Doesnt mean it's not a workable look just pointing out the Atl changes at HL.
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That's quite the progression of the Pac ridge blob into the EPO and moving into the AO towards the end of the OP run. Usual caveat...it's an op run at range but that's one way to potentially make Feb a very memorable one. I also like how the Pac death ridge was replaced with a strong trof.
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No southern sliders. Said a few times already these looks have an icy/mix feel to them.
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I want to walk across the bridge.
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GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland
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Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.
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6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.
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Also referred to around these parts as "winter cancel". Let them jump ship....this isnt over yet.
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Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong.
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Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.
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@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible
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Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.
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EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.
