Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Maybe Larry C was omto something and should have stuck with his original thoughts for a warmup. 6z GFS says winter ends and spring begins next week. I say bring it!
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Euro has solid HP dominating where others have some sort of storm.
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He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally!
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Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.
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We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm.
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Kind of made a point there for the other side. There used to be a time where it was meteorology and not modelology. Not saying Glenn model mongers.....I don't think he does, BUT there are those pros that 'forget' how to forecast IMHO and solely follow the models. True meteorology is becoming a lost art.
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Where's the nbc10 weather truck?
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JB and Cosgrove essentially agree tho LC says all of January a complete washout until the very end of the month.
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Agreed. They are a receptive bunch.
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It was irrelevant to the topic.
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Who is JB?
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Cosgrove sticking hard to his guns saying this upcoming cold snap will be brief and transient in an overall AN temp pattern that is locked in thru late January. Guess he doesn't like looking at the EPS or GEFS? They are completely opposite of what he is suggesting with very cold and stormy pattern taking shape.
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Cosgrove updated again today. Says brief cold shot later this week but transient as the progressive/zonal pattern locks in thru the last days of January. He is saying mild East of the Apps thru very late January. Not what I wanted to hear this morning.
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LC going with mean trof in center of nation thru New Year at least with warmth on both coasts. One of the rare times I disagree with him.
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Didnt JB throw in the towel just a few days ago?? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk
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Larry Cosgrove saying seasonal then turning warm after mid-month with a warm Christmas for us....again. Brief cold snap after the holiday then mild from New Year through late January. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk
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According to Accuweather extended forecast for my area, no snow in December with the first accumulating snowfall occurring around the 16th of January as a wintry mix that being the only snowfall aside from some snow showers/flurries thru Feb 9.
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I don't care for it personally. Information overload.
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Someone from NOAA was on a morning show with Al Roker last week. Al was showing the upgraded Euro reporting from England...in particular the run which clobbered the I95 corridor. He commented something about how accurate the Euro is and is now upgraded yada yada yada. Anyway, they went back to the studio to interview someone from NOAA and he said the USA has an upgraded model that is being tested and will be released soon that is even better and more accurate than the Euro. He didnt say which model. Is it safe to assume he was referencing the GFS para? Or is there another beta model under lock and key that will be put into the model rotation?
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Murphy's Law that as soon as I throw in the towel a threat pops up lol. Alas, its the Euro and hasn't been its old rock-solid self in the LR this year. Garner some more support from other guidance and get us within 4 or 5 days and I'll jump all-in.
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Agreed 100%. Wouldn't be surprised by a few March snow showers at some point during the first half of the month, but for all intents and purposes in Philly proper, it's over. I keep seeing posts around the forums that day 10 looks promising, but this is merely a broken record in this winter of shattered LR dreams.
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LOL!I'm not sure what guidance he is using but I zero to little N Atl blocking on any LR ops nor any of the ens means. And he is also ignoring the strong Western Atlantic Ridge (see latest CMC/GFS for how this keeps storm track inland/warmish as opposed to being able to run off the coast). These "the pattern looks ripe in 8-12 days" predictions have not and are not working out this season for whatever reason. It's easy to point to the strong El Nino I suppose but I wonder if it has anything to do partly with the anamolous sst's near Greenland? The NAO predictions have seemed to crap the bed the most in recent months of all teleconnections.
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Sorry, I wasnt referring to YOU, lol. But rather the big dog himself ;-)
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Oh hell yeah, the teleconnections suggest we are far from finished with winter. And the pattern after Feb 5-ish turns from AN to N/BN. The one thing different this go around appears the STJ wont be quite as active to start out, but trends better as we move past Feb 10-ish. I'm not against this threat, I'm merely stating the facts that for now, there is not much support for a specific threat 240 hours or further out.
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They were in fair agreement at day 6-7 before suppressing the storm. Too far out to get excited or start a thread based on one OP run with minimal ens support from Euro or GFS. But that's just me. If you're trying to puff your chest by noting the potential first before anyone else, then by all means, start a thread :-)
