Ralph Wiggum

Go back on TT and watch models since midweek runs. Almost all had nary a drop of moisture affecting SE PA. Specifically, the GFS kept ticking NW almost every run since at least 0z last Thurs. I think that sort of trend would have many here jumping for joy in mid January if that track and trends occurred. As far as the NAM seems status quo to me....same stuff different storm. Ramps up totals 36 hours out...then backs down as you said just prior matching most other guidance. It may be a long winter but probably not for the reason you mentioned unless you ride the NAM religiously.

Last year when we had these looks and the WAR was present the LR models kept pumping out unicorns like this with the ridging in the W Atl feeding a neg NAO. But as lead time lessened we saw time and time again that the WAR never fed high later blocking and was either transient or just set up shop and never really linked up. Maybe this season can be different, but as much as many wont admit, this has been recurring for several seasons now and getting a sustained neg NAO has been like trying to get a Wonka Bar golden ticket.

Not sure I want to see this in Oct. Likely wont happen but snow in the metro in Oct is usually the kiss of death for the winter:

⬆️⬆️ this is what I am getting concerned about. Second time recently LR showed an excellent stormy regime in the East only to be replaced by a redeveloping WAR and trof out West. Like groundhog day....hopefully just leftovers from last winter and the trends/tendencies over NA progress into something else over the next several weeks.

1st image is euro ens....2nd image gfs ens....3rd image cmc ens. Warmish ridge in the east, any stormy regime out West or confined deep South. Maybe this will change, maybe not. Point isnt to troll DT or LC but LR forecasting is humbling as most of us saw last year:

Dear God if this were January and we were expecting a coastal with a track somewhat similar to what most guidance was showing yet we woke up to cloudless skies like today, I cant even imagine the mass cliff jumping. Btw, DT's epic monster Noreaster pattern for Oct 19th or whatever suddenly doesnt look so epic. We're not going to do this "let me be the first to spot a storm 3 weeks out" again this year I hope?

WAR keeps redeveloping on ens and has been an off and on feature all summer. Really hoping that feature isnt a recurring theme and a repeat of last year. Not saying it will be...just have a bad taste still from last winter so obviously watching for trends. Winter outlook is being worked on....will release by early Nov as always.

I see David is hunting unicorns earlier than normal this year lol.

December to remember incoming

Autumn of azz

Fishing patterns have been scorching hot past few days and will only get better. No boredom here

How was Spongebob's home flattened by storm surge? The absorbent in yellow and porous bastard lives in a pineapple UNDER THE SEA ffs

But what about urban heat island effect? If it comes close to Miami for example it should ramp up to a Cat 6 with all that lift and convection and stuff no?

So does the NAM past 30 hours trash apply in the summer the same as with winter storms? 12k NAM stalls Dorian near Bahamas and implies a possible loop/recurve. But it's the NAM at range so we toss it right?

Why is it inevitable that comparisons to Andrew and Hugo are made any time a SE US landfalling cane threat occurs? Every. Single. Time.

HMON hates Miami

This wouldnt be a terrible look at all in D-J-F but we all know that we wont see this again until next May

GFS is at it again in the LR. Was showing a long 10-day stretch of sustained negative temp anomalies run after run after run. Slowly backed off of that idea and now looking like avg to AN temps with only a few BN brief appearances. The HL blocking and West-based -NAO has been a nice treat but why always in the summer anymore and never during winter? Has little impact in the summer other than helping us avoid 100F.

Marble sized hail in Warminster earlier.

Missed my house by about a half mile. Isolated/localized damage.

So more of a line of storms tonight as opposed to the individual supercells from yesterday? We tend to always get shafted here with lines of storms for some reason. Strongest embedded cells always seem to go just S or N of my location. Plants look great tho this year so far. Nice wet spring and no super heat yet.

Bullseye

This afternoon looks slightly more volatile to me than yesterday, perhaps not as widespread but higher risk possibility. I have noticed in situations like this for whatever reason when there are similar patterns or flows for a couple of days with severe wx those that miss out on day one 9 out of 10 times will get hit on day 2 or 3. Hoping for some non-destructive boomers here. Last time I was able to photo a supercell to my east that went over me with the setting sun lighting up the towering cumulonimbus associated with the sc was about 25 years ago.

Spring of azz. We missed out too in Warminster. Literally had a cell right over us around 830pm had one flash of lightning and a low rumble of thunder and it was over. Maybe this afternoon.