Ralph Wiggum

Congrats on next week. Every medium range model has you getting measurable snow now. NJ in the crosshairs less than a week out. What could possibly go wrong?

Front comes thru Thursday maybe some flakes on the backside especially far NW zones. Potential still showing for something around the 12th/13th. Worth keeping an eye on anyway since it could provide the first flakes of the season for parts of the metro area. EpS has been solid on the signal. Lost the bomb that it was showing but overall has a nice look with energy rounding a trof in the East and a wave off the coast throwing back some moisture into a fresh cold air mass. GEFS is trending in the right direction. I am posting the mslp trends over the past 4 runs as well as the 500mb anomaly maps. Note the pna ridge firing out west with each run.

Depends on who you asked I guess.

EPS and GEFS fairly similar irt key features during this period. Ridge bridge over top is nice, PV over the GL with trof along EC, ridging out West (PNA and EPO). Would like to see the WAR start feeding the NAO as we head later into the fall and become a recurring progression.

But did you see the BOMB on the Euro just a bit too far off the coast around the 13th? Something is going down during that period. Same time frame the GFS was dropping Barney's PV into the region for a few runs. And yes, other guidance like the GFS op has a storm but not nearly as organized/consolidated as the Euro. Certainly worth a look over the next several days....see if it has legs.

12z Euro with a weenie run for early/mid November standards.

Euro is slightly more amped digs the trof just a bit more. GFS really isnt that far off tbh. Euro is right in between the eps and gfs OP which if this were 4 weeks from now most of us would be greatly intrigued. Not a bad place to be. Again, something to finally tease us that isnt just the para gfs.

Top is the Euro, middle is the EPS, bottom is GFS:

Some interesting developments on the horizon. Both the GFS and Euro are rather close to something late week (Friday?) with a lp area sliding South and unseasonably cold air hanging around. Would likely favor those climo and elevated areas but who knows? Something to tease us. Then the GFS is showing a chunk of the PV visiting the OV and Northeast around the 13th with some mood flakes (maybe something more?). Again, some things to keep us entertained at least.

New GFS has been great for head fakes thus far anyway:

So you're saying we're due?

Sooo much damage up here. Many roads closed tons of trees down. Looks like Sandy came thru again.

Same cell that ripped thru here (Warminster/Hartsville). Interested to see what guests were reported. Sounded more fierce than anything during Sandy.

Freight train just came thru here...it's breezy.

As you said, Mt Holly doesnt seem too enthused.

Scoured guidance irt another poster mentioning Thurs/Fri and the lack of interest from Mt Holly. I can see why it isnt being mentioned as a big deal. In general, autumn fropas dont make headlines around here unless accompanied by wind advisories or the rare autumnal severe weather.

What's Thursday and Friday?

New GFS needs to be banned this winter. That thing has been spitting out digital snow for weeks now. I can only imagine the nonsense we will see from it this winter.

Here's the 12z run just a few days later. Friends, we have officially entered fantasy/digital snow season:

When the GFS OP shows a workable setup (that would still need to work out perfectly), but the GEFS show a completely opposite setup, it should be fairly easy to decide which would be more likely especially given recent pattern trends and climatology:

Upgraded GFS just loves spitting out fantasy snowfall. This is the 3rd or 4th fantasy storm it has shown over the past few weeks and it isnt even Halloween yet. Going to make for an interesting inaugural season this winter lol:

This storm was when I lived in Southern Delco and we had more than the 30.7 the airport measured (which was 7 miles from my home). I remember walking in my unplowed cul de sac and the snow being in the mid part of my thigh....mind you I was/am 6'1". Was just an amazing event...my personal favorite of all-time.

Appears on all ensemble means the general teleconnection theme over the next 10+ days is -PNA with EPO ridge displaced West towards Gulf of Alaska. -NAO appears but remains transient and/or weakens relatively quickly. WAR continues to appear but rather than feeding and reinforcing an NAO ridge it splits much like last winter and feeds a flattish SE Ridge. Split flow remains over the Eastern Pacific with one stream displaced into AK and Western Canada and the other undercutting said ridging and riding thru SW US and old Mexico. Nothing too exciting and certainly not an indication of the coming winter pattern. Merely posting what the ens means are trying to show in general.